FXUS63 KAPX 091611
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1211 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms continue through the day today. Locally
  heavy rain the main concern.

- Warming trend this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1213 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Rainfall has been a little lackluster Wednesday night, despite the 
abundant moisture. The night is still young though with upstream 
activity beginning to increase in coverage to some extent. 
Nevertheless, expect an uptick in activity this morning and through 
the afternoon, driven by a frontal boundary sagging south, 
increasing daytime instability, and a passing trough axis. With 
anomalous column moisture in place and respectable instability 
(especially south of M-32), thunderstorms have the potential to 
produce locally heavy rainfall. Any better-organized storms that 
train over the same or sensitive areas could produce localized 
flooding. Best potential today appears to focus south of M-32, where 
the better forcing and instability will reside. Deep-layer shear 
values remain relatively tame, and largely skinny CAPE profiles 
should limit the severe weather potential, though a robust storm or 
two is not out of the question due to the increasing heights aloft 
(>6km) and precipitation loading. Activity will wane this evening 
and overnight as the axis of anomalous moisture drifts south with 
the advancing frontal boundary. A quiet Friday is expected, with 
temperatures near or a few degrees below seasonal averages behind 
this boundary.

A piece of energy or two riding the northwest flow—on the outer
periphery of a building and eastward-migrating upper-level 
high—will swing through northern Michigan this weekend with 
little impact. The region will enter a warming trend, however, 
as heights steadily rise. Surface high pressure will build (or 
attempt to build) northeastward into Minnesota, bringing 
anomalously high heights aloft over northern Michigan. 
Consequently, temperatures will continue to rise early next 
week, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Precipitation 
chances during this period will remain low, as long as the high
pressure dominates the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1211 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Mix of VFR (CIU) and MVFR / IFR (currently only MBL is IFR)
across the TAF sites for the moment as a front producing showers
and thunder passes through the region (currently draped right
across northern lower). Anticipating shower (all sites) and 
thunder (mainly APN) potential to carry through the next 3-5
hours, with a quick improvement to VFR in the wake of the
front's passage this afternoon into the evening. Perhaps some
redeveloping BR / FG tonight in the wake of this rain, but
otherwise, anticipating VFR to prevail through the night. Light
WSW winds turn N tonight, likely going calm overnight. 

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...HAD