FXUS63 KAPX 232212
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
612 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy winds and cool temperatures continue Monday with dry 
weather expected through the first half of the week.

- Rain chances return late Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Impressive late-summer troughing will continue to churn over the 
Great Lakes tonight as it eventually lifts northeast early this 
week. The associated surface cyclone centered along the 
Ontario/Quebec border will weaken with time as the system becomes 
increasingly vertically stacked, cutting off favorable advections 
for support. Meanwhile, ridging sliding over the northern Great 
Plains will help build surface high pressure across the region 
through the first half of the week. Troughing eventually works back 
overhead during the second half of the week, likely bringing another 
system across the Great Lakes in the late Wednesday/Thursday 
timeframe.

Forecast Details:

Fall-feeling weather across the area today with breezy winds and 
cool temperatures will continue into Monday. While afternoon highs 
will be a few degrees warmer on Monday, readings are still expected 
to stay in the upper 60s to low 70s for most of the area -- around 5 
degrees cooler than late-August averages. Northwest winds between 10-
20 mph with gusts to 25-35 mph will persist this afternoon and 
continue Monday as well, although slightly less windy conditions are 
anticipated tomorrow. Isolated to scattered light lake enhanced rain 
showers today are also expected to draw to a close for most areas 
later this evening and tonight as an increasingly hostile 
environment moves in as aforementioned high pressure builds. The 
exception will be across the far eastern U.P./Lake Huron shoreline 
tonight into early Monday morning as rain looks to linger on the 
backside of the system as it exits. Cannot completely rule out a few 
showers Monday, but the first half of the week is expected to be dry 
across northern Michigan.

Our next chances for rain will return late Wednesday and Thursday as 
troughing digs back into the Great Lakes. Timing appears to be 
delayed some from previous forecast cycles, potentially keeping most 
of Wednesday dry. That said, steadier rain chances appear 
increasingly likely in the front end of this system late 
Wednesday/early Thursday with additional rain showers possible 
through late Thursday on the backside of the departing system. 
Otherwise, highs will warm back into the upper 70s and low 80s by 
Tuesday with temperatures set to cool back into the upper 60s and 
70s during the second half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 609 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Band of MVFR producing low clouds and some light showers
expected to continue to impact KCIU and KAPN tonight into Monday
morning. May also see some of this lower overcast impact KPLN at
times tonight into Sunday morning as well. Cigs will only 
slowly improve at KCIU and KAPN through Monday, with more rapid 
improvement at KPLN during the morning. VFR conditions the 
remainder of the taf locations through the period under some 
passing higher based cumulus at times. Gusty northwest winds 
will continue.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ016-
     018-020-021-024>026-031-098-099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for LHZ346.
     Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Monday for LHZ347-348.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to midnight EDT Monday 
     night for LHZ347-348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for LHZ349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for LMZ345-346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DJC
AVIATION...MSB