FXUS63 KARX 081750 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1250 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rounds of thunderstorms are expected today, one north of I-94 this morning and a second across much of the area this afternoon and evening. These storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall with modest probabilities (30-50%) for over 1 inch of rainfall and localized spots seeing upwards of 2 to 4 inches. - Some storms this afternoon and evening may be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. - Seasonable temperatures are expected throughout much of the week with highs in the low to mid 80s before warming through the weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 203 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Today - Thursday: Storms Expected, Some Strong to Severe with the Potential for Heavy Rainfall this Afternoon and Evening Storms ongoing early this morning across portions of central MN will shift into north-central WI throughout the early morning hours as suggested throughout much of the CAMs as a shortwave impulse situated in western MN pushes eastward. Noting some gravity wave signatures in the convection over western MN that might try to propagate slightly more southward of where the CAMs currently suggest, overall not confident in how this would manifest but could see some strong wind gusts with any organized convection north of I-94 early this morning, especially considering the respectable 0-3km shear profiles in the recent RAP. Otherwise, as this early morning convection in north-central WI departs, the key question is exactly where the resultant boundary left behind is located to initiate afternoon convection. Run-to-run consistency in many of the CAMs has not been overly consistent with a variety of storm modes and locations being present keeping forecast confidence for the afternoon and evening somewhat low. That being said, the environment depicted in the RAP suggests fairly weak deep-layer shear profiles with relatively skinny instability. As a result, would expect any supercellular structures that do develop to struggle as updraft/downdraft separation would not be maintained for very long. Consequently, would expect storms to trend multi-cellular or linear quickly depending on what forcing is present. Overall, the hail threat with these storms appears somewhat limited due to the deep warm cloud depths, lack of robust deep layer shear and skinny instability profiles. However, certainly could see some damaging wind gusts with significant precipitation loading in storms as well as with any linear modes. In addition to the severe potential, the parameter space for heavy rainfall is respectable with precipitable waters of around 1.75" and warm cloud depths to around 3.5-4km. Consequently, the 00z HREF has medium probabilities (30-50%) for rainfall amounts over 1" across much of the local area. However, cannot rule out some localized rainfall amounts in the 2-4" range as the 00z HREF has some amounts in this range in the higher percentile members. The key point of uncertainty that remains is again related to where storms may frequent the same locations as much of the CAMs have conflicting opinions on where convection may trek earlier in the afternoon. That being said, there has been some increasing signal during the late afternoon and evening for a more pronounced frontal passage to interact with convection in the local area and force it upscale, most notably seen in the recent HRRR and NAM Nest runs. This would likely coincide with a shortwave, currently situated over South Dakota, pushing through the area during the evening and overnight. In this scenario, more organization of cold pools could lead to a damaging wind risk as well.Additional storms cannot be ruled out overnight and into the early morning hours with any differential heating boundaries, but given the degree of surface stability overnight and into the early morning hours on Thursday, the severe potential with these should be minimal. Friday - Early Next Week: Warmer Temperatures Return Over the weekend, mid to upper level ridging begins to build across the United States which is noted in most/all of the deterministic and ensemble guidance. Heights associated with this ridge are expected to be fairly impressive, reaching 594-600dam at 500hPa, which the 07.00z NAEFS highlights as near or exceeding the maximum heights within climatology. Surface temperatures trend warmer this weekend into next week in response to these rising heights. There's still quite a bit of spread within the various ensemble suites regarding what the temperatures will ultimately be, but interquartile spreads suggest highs in the upper 80s are favored, but possibly reach into the low 90s. Dewpoint temperatures also increase during this period as the 07.07z NBM suggests a 30-60% probability to exceed 70 degrees highest over northeast Iowa, translating to apparent temperatures in the 90s. Will need to continue monitoring trends, but a return to warm and muggy conditions looks to be on the horizon && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Primarily VFR conditions continue through the next few hours with light southwest winds ahead of expected showers and storms that move northwest to southeast across the region this afternoon into tonight, generally in the 20z to 09z timeframe. That said, there are some storms have already developed along I-35 this afternoon. These storms are expected to bring heavy rainfall leading to MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities. Also can't rule out some strong gusty winds as they move through. MVFR to IFR ceilings linger through the overnight hours behind the showers/storms. There is also the indication that patchy fog could develop across the region alongside these lower ceilings, but any fog that does develop should burn off fairly quickly through the morning hours. Confidence in fog impacts is currently not high enough to include at the TAF sites, but is something to monitor overnight. Winds gradually shift to the northwest through Thursday morning generally 10KT or less. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Falkinham/Naylor AVIATION...Falkinham