FXUS63 KARX 090459
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1159 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storm are possible this afternoon, 
  mainly east of the Mississippi River.

- Cooler weather to end the week with highs staying in the upper
  70s to mid 80s. Warmer weather returns this weekend and
  continues next week as highs get in the upper 80s to low 90s. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Today: Fog Early this Morning, Scattered Showers and Storms This 
Afternoon

With the rain that fell and the subsidence behind the front that 
moved through, foggy conditions may occur early this morning. If 
skies clear out a little more then their could also be localized 
areas of dense fog in some locations. Northwest flow aloft along 
with soundings suggesting around 1500 to 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE will 
support scattered showers and storms this afternoon. With weak shear 
in place for this afternoon, these storms will struggle to get 
going. East of the Mississippi River has the best chance at seeing a 
shower or storm. The main threat with these storms that can get 
going and stay organized a for a period of time would be very 
localized rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5" due to slower storm motion.

Friday-Next Week: Cooler End to the Week with Warmer and Drier 
Conditions Next Week

Beginning on Friday, a ridge builds into the Upper Midwest. This 
will limit any rainfall chances for much of next week. Temperatures 
get into the upper 80s to low 90s across the CWA with the warmest 
temperatures west of the Mississippi River. At the surface the 
region will be just to the east of the high pressure center which 
could temper our temperatures compared to the High Plains where they 
will be in good southerly flow and west of the high pressure center. 
Confidence is high on the ridge staying overhead through midweek. 
Afterwards is where the uncertainty begins. Ensembles and 
deterministic guidance show the ridge breaking down at some point 
and bringing the storm path more in line with the Upper Midwest, 
however the main difference is when this occurs. The longer the 
ridge stays amplified and over our area, the less likely we see 
convection in our region. 

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

A cold front will move through southeast Iowa and southwest 
Wisconsin between now and 11 pm. Once this occurs, the threat
for severe weather and flooding will end. Areas of fog will be
found overnight. This will produce areas of IFR/MVFR ceilings 
and visibilities through 09.14z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

After a swath of 3 to 5" fell in portions of southeast 
Minnesota and northeast Iowa and a more localized area of 5 to 7" 
across southern Mower County, the Cedar River is pronged to be above 
flood stage over the next few days as the runoff fills into the 
River. Little to no more rain is expected over the next few days. 
The lone exception is this afternoon as scattered showers and storms 
are possible. There is a localized possibility of 0.5 to 1.5" 
occurring where a storm occurs. East of the Mississippi River has 
the best chance at seeing a shower or storm. Given the slow storm 
motions, these storms could linger over a given location.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cecava
AVIATION...Boyne
HYDROLOGY...Cecava