FXUS63 KARX 191048
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
548 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and dry through midweek with highs in the upper 50s to
  low 60s.

- Patchy to areas of frost possible in north-central and central Wisconsin
  tonight and Wednesday night. 

- Periodic shower and storms chances from Friday into early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Showers and Storms Through Early This Morning

Showers and storms continue ahead a cold front that will move 
through in the early morning hours. With the better instability and 
low-level shear to our south, not much if any severe weather is 
expected. Some gusty winds and small hail will be the main threats. 
There looks to be a small break in between the storms ahead of the 
cold front and the cold front itself, which would have a line of 
light to moderate rain moving through the forecast area between 09 
and 14Z.  

Cooler and Dry for the Rest of Today Through Thursday

After the cold front moves through, surface high pressure builds in 
and remains over the area through Thursday. This will keep the CWA 
under dry conditions and with the Upper Midwest on the edge of a 
longwave trough, temperatures will be on the cooler side with highs 
in the upper 50s to low 60s. Low temperatures tonight and Wednesday 
night get down into the upper 30s to potentially the mid 30s for 
portions of Clark and Taylor counties. There could be some patchy 
areas of frost with these low temperatures. There is a shortwave 
that pushes north from the Plains into the Upper Midwest, however 
uncertainty exists on if we get any precipitation from it. Currently 
the LREF gives a 30 to 50% chance for measurable rainfall to occur. 

Periodic Shower and Storm Chances From Friday into Early Next Week

Deterministic and ensemble forecasts both favor the upper-level 
pattern remaining in the zonal to southwest flow. During this same 
time period there are a few disturbances that move into the Upper 
Midwest that increase precipitation chances. Heading into early next 
week, temperatures warm back up into the low 80s as some southwest 
flow returns.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 546 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

IFR ceilings west of the Mississippi River Valley expected to
become widespread through the early morning, eventually lifting
through the early afternoon. Confidence in KLSE dropping below 
MVFR is low given the lower elevation and will be detail to 
monitor as it may fluctuate below MVFR through late morning. Low
level cold air advection will keep stronger northwest winds 
through the daytime hours.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cecava
AVIATION...JAR