FXUS63 KARX 222323
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
623 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued dry and pleasant for the remainder of the weekend 
  with highs in the low 70s to low 80s.

- The next potential risk for showers and storms comes
  Tuesday/early Wednesday (20-50% chance) with rain not
  returning to the forecast again until next weekend.

- Seasonable temperatures continue for next week with highs in
  the mid 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Rest of Today - Monday: Dry and Seasonable

We find ourselves solidly embedded in northwesterly flow this 
afternoon as an upper tropospheric trough digs over the Great 
Lakes/Ohio River valley and a paired meridional ridge builds 
along the Front Range. This upstream ridge slowly migrates 
eastward over the next 24-48 hours, with the ridge axis over the
High Plains on Sunday and central Missouri River Valley by 
midday Monday. The net result for the region will be continued 
dry and pleasant conditions through Monday. Highs should top out
in the upper 70s to low 80s with a Canadian fetch dropping 
dewpoints into the 40s and 50s. Not bad for late August!

The only forecast concerns for this timeframe will revolve 
around any overnight/early morning valley fog, which looks to be
confined to the Mississippi River tributaries tonight but could
become more widespread Sunday night depending on how the upper 
level clouds pan out.

Tuesday - Wednesday: Storm Potential Returns

Medium range guidance continues to be in good agreement that 
our main window for precipitation in the seven day forecast will
come between Tuesday and Wednesday mornings as a compact vort 
lobe crests the aforementioned ridge and slides across Minnesota
and Wisconsin. There may be stronger mid to upper level 
unidirectional flow with this complex that could result in 
organized cell structures should the lower level thermodynamic 
fields line up. Early looks at some of the deterministic GFS 
forecast soundings reflect this notion with elongated NW to SE 
hodographs that would support all modes of severe convection. 
The devil is in the details at this stage in the forecast and, 
given the wide range of plausible outcomes, plenty can change 
over the next 2-3 days.

Latter Half of the Week: Dry Start, More Active for the Weekend

We return to northwesterly flow and dry conditions for the 
latter half of the week with no real signal for additional 
rainfall until next weekend as the ridge flattens and several 
waves push through. There is some signal for a more organized 
precipitation event in some of the longer range deterministic 
and ensemble solutions with some outliers depicting swaths of 
1-2+ inches of rain for later in the weekend. That being said, 
these are the outlier (<10%) solutions and there is a wide 
spread in the track of this system at this range.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both RST/LSE taf sites
through the taf period. Ridge axis will build over the area
tonight allow for clear skies and light winds. However...near
surface boundary layer moisture is lacking and a light northerly
wind near the surface will inhibit any widespread fog to develop
into the Mississippi River Valley. Low confidence fog will
impact the LSE taf site after 06z. Lighter winds and VFR
conditions will continue into Sunday.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skow
AVIATION...DTJ