FXUS63 KARX 230523
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1223 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and pleasant conditions through Monday with highs in
  the mid 70s to low 80s.

- Next widespread chance (25 to 55%) for showers and storms
  in Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Seasonable temperatures continue for the rest of this week 
  with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Today - Monday: Dry and Seasonable

Northwest flow continues through Monday as a trough sits off to our 
east and a ridge to our west. This ridge decays as it moves eastward 
as we go through Monday. With the ridge axis over the central CONUS 
today and Monday dry conditions continue and high temperatures 
remain slightly cooler than normal in the mid 70s to low 80s. 
Dewpoints also remain on the lower side, in the 40s and 50s. The 
only forecast concern over the next couple of days is some fog. 
Through this morning it looks to be confined mainly to Mississippi 
River tributaries. Heading into tonight/early Monday morning, the 
winds shift to the east southeast which could help the fog potential 
become more widespread, depending on how when upper level clouds 
move in. Overall though, a really nice couple of days are in store 
for us!

Tuesday - Wednesday: Storm Potential

Circling back to the current conditions, a trough just moved onshore 
in the Pacific Northwest. This trough will ride around the ridge and 
eventually move over the Upper Midwest for Tuesday into Wednesday. 
Forecast soundings from the deterministic GFS and ECMWF show some 
low-level curvature and elongation with their hodographs. This is 
slightly different from previous soundings from this morning which 
highlighted more elongation with little curvature. The GFS and ECMWF 
both have quite a bit of DCAPE (around 1000 to 1200 J/kg) and modest 
0-6km shear (35 to 50 kts). All this to say that if storms can 
initiate then these parameters would support severe convection. The 
one caveat to this forecast is that we are still 3 days out from 
this event, so there are quite a bit of details to iron out still so 
stay tuned for further updates on this storm potential.

Thursday - Sunday: Dry Early with Increased Storm Potential for the 
Weekend

With the trough exiting the region on Wednesday, northwest flow 
returns for Thursday and Friday resulting in mostly dry conditions. 
The flow then shifts to a more quasi zonal/northwest flow pattern. 
Precipitation chances look to increase as we head into the weekend 
as a couple of shortwaves pass through the region. There is still 
uncertainty given we are this far out from these waves impacting the 
region, however a few ensemble members of the GEFS and EPS due show 
some potential (10%) of 1 to 2" of rain possible.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

VFR conditions and northwesterly winds are expected to prevail 
through the period outside of some river valley locations 
overnight tonight. That said, shallow light wind layer at the 
surface, dry conditions Saturday afternoon, and the 
northwesterly wind direction all suggest this fog will be 
limited and stay away from LSE in any case.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cecava
AVIATION...Ferguson