FXUS61 KBGM 151046
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
646 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Temperatures slightly warmer Friday night and winds slightly
lower Saturday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A strengthening low passes north of the region Friday into
Saturday.

2) High pressure and southwest flow will lead to a gradual warm
up through next week after a chilly weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1

High pressure will give way to an approaching warm front which
should push through the region tonight as a low pressure system
tracks into the Great Lakes. Clouds will be on the increase
today with most spots getting close to 60 for highs. Tonight
with the development of a LLJ and warm frontal passage temperatures
may not fall much after the early evening hours or even 
slightly rise toward sunrise. Moisture lifted along the warm
front looks sufficient enough for a round of showers as well
heading toward daybreak Friday.  

Overall, the warm sector looks to be in our region slightly
longer on Friday now. This should allow for a break in the
showers for a time and for high temperatures to make a run at 70
for most of the region. Hires models are showing some slight
CAPE advecting into NEPA and perhaps the Southern Tier of NY as
well. Some thunder was added to the forecast ahead of the cold
front with the final push of showers moving through the region.
A few stronger wind gusts may be able to reach the ground with
any thunderstorm. Rainfall looks to max out around an inch being
aided by terrain in Oneida county with general amounts around
half an inch. 

Temperatures drop sharply Friday night but are trending slightly
warmer. With the northerly to northwesterly flow lingering
moisture from the Great Lakes should be sufficient enough for
lingering clouds and spotty rain showers and or snow flurries.
Temperatures look to be stuck in the 30's and 40's Saturday with
a sharp but brief cold shot.  

KEY MESSAGE 2

High pressure builds into the region early next week. Winds have
trended lighter Saturday night and with clear skies.
Temperatures still are indicated to fall below freezing for
most of the area with the growing season still ongoing in
Lackawanna and Luzerne counties. A fairly tranquil period is 
expected with high pressure over the region early next week with
weak southwesterly flow allowing for a warmup.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clouds will start to diminish in coverage this morning, and 
cloud base heights will start to increase, resulting in VFR 
flight conditions for all terminals by the late morning and 
early afternoon. Clouds will start to increase later in the day 
ahead of the next system.

As the next system approaches in the last third of the 12z TAF
period, conditions will start deteriorating after 03z, and will
likely continue getting worse through the night.

Outlook...

Thursday night Friday...Low pressure system passing by, 
increasing winds and rain will lead to restrictions. Potential
for LLWS will increase for the second half of Thursday night. 

Saturday...Lake effect cloud cover keeps cig restrictions likely
for all terminals but AVP. Early morning snow showers possible
at ITH and BGM. 

Sunday into Monday...High pressure returns with mostly VFR 
conditions expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...KL