FXUS63 KBIS 071938
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
238 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Medium to high chances of showers and thunderstorms spreading
  across much of western and central North Dakota today through
  tonight. There is a low risk of strong to severe storms along
  and south of the I-94 corridor with this activity.

- A cooling trend is expected through midweek, before a warming
  trend occurs late this week and into next weekend.

- Very hot this weekend and early next week with temperatures
  above 100 degrees possible, and heat index values of 100 to 
  105.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Quasi-zonal flow aloft continues as a short wave digs across the
main flow aloft this afternoon bringing chances for 
thunderstorms in North Dakota. There is a low chance of strong 
to severe thunderstorm possible this afternoon along the MUCAPE 
axis along the North and South Dakota border. Precipitable water
around 1.5 inches will move across the region supporting high 
rainfall rates which have been observed in South Dakota this 
morning. Localized flooding is possible if thunderstorms train 
over an area for a couple of hours. Some of the CAMs show an 
area of strong thunderstorms developing in the southern James 
River Valley this afternoon. However the southern James River 
Valley had an MCV roll through the region so the environment may
be a little worked over. The greatest risk for strong storms 
remain in South Dakota.

Daily chances will continue across the state as multiple waves
move across the region as Quasi-zonal flow persists. CSU ML 
program and NSSL ML Program does highlight a low chance of 
severe weather Thursday into the weekend. Thursday is now 
outlooked for a marginal risk for large hail and damaging winds.
Severe weather chances will continue through the week due 
increased instability, due to warmer temperatures, low level 
moisture, and multiple waves. Temperatures are forecast to 
slowly decrease by tomorrow into the 70s and 80s before ramping 
back up into the 80s and 90s by the weekend. An upper level 
ridge is forecast to build back over the west this coming 
weekend supporting a round of hot weather. The NBM 25th to 75th 
on Sunday does range from the lower 90s to lower 100s for KBIS. 
The current NBM forecast for Sunday and Monday is 100 and 99.
Thus, there is high confidence in hot temperatures for early 
next week leading to heat headlines.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Models are forecasting lower ceilings moving in across the state
tonight bringing forth some MVFR conditions. A system has
brought forth showers and thunderstorms across the state. Rain
is forecast to expand across the state bringing slight
visibility reductions. Ceilings should begin to clear out by 
tomorrow late morning. Winds will remain out of the east.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson