FXUS63 KBIS 081848
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
148 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures remain today, followed by a strong 
  warming trend through the weekend.

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible late
  Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening.

- Very hot this weekend and early next week, with daily high
  temperatures 95 to 105.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Currently quasi-zonal flow is over the Northern Plains and
northern Rockies. At the surface, a high pressure is in far
southern Canada, influencing the Dakotas and eastern Montana.
Around the high is a stationary front from central Montana to 
Nebraska, and back up to Minnesota. A very slight wave in the 
zonal flow has created light rain showers in northern North 
Dakota today. 

Thursday another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms 
are possible in the evening. All of western and central North 
Dakota is in a level 1 risk, with a smaller area through the 
middle part of the state of a level 2 risk. A weak surface low 
pressure will move east across the International Border in the 
western half of the state. With at least 35 knots of shear, and 
the shear vector perpendicular to that stationary front, 
isolated super cells are possible in western and central North 
Dakota. With ample surface heating and moisture advecting into 
the state, the middle third of the state was upgraded to a level
2 risk. The current forecast for hail size is up to 2 inches 
and 60mph wind gust. Convection will likely start discrete 
before becoming clusters as outflow boundaries collide through 
the event. Timing and location are unfortunately low confidence 
as the various CAMs have differences. The general consensus for 
a start time is in between 21 and 00z in western ND, and moving
southeast, exiting our area by 10z. 

Looking ahead to this very hot weekend, a large upper level high
will strengthen over the Desert Southwest. This will create a
ridge over the Northern Plains, allowing that clockwise moving high
to push the hot air northward at the 850mb level. The current 
deterministic NBM temperature forecast continue to show lower 
triple digits for western and parts of central ND Sunday and 
Monday, but overall the extreme heat will last from Friday 
through at least Tuesday. One thing to note for Sunday and 
Monday, is that the deterministic temperatures have been the 
75th percentile of the NBM, meaning there is likely a warm bias 
occurring and actual temperatures won't be as high. This 
morning's run, already has come down closer to the 50th 
percentile, although that is still in the triple digits. 

The large upper high will slowly roll to the northeast and end
up centered on the Central Plains by Monday. An Alberta Clipper
moving through Minnesota will then squish the high back to the
west. This will squeeze the very warm temperatures down to the
South Dakota border, while the rest of the state drops to the
80s or low 90s by Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

VFR with a few areas in the south central of BKN MVFR CIGs this
afternoon. Winds will be southeasterly 5 to 10kts, calming 
after sunset.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Smith