FXUS63 KBIS 082315
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
615 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible late
  Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening.

- A strong warming trend is expected through the rest of the
  week, with very hot daily high temperatures around 95 to 105
  forecast this weekend through early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Quiet weather is found across western and central North Dakota 
at the time of this early evening update. Earlier showers across
portions of the northwest and north central have dissipated. 
Have tweaked sky grids this evening, but otherwise the forecast 
remains on track. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Currently quasi-zonal flow is over the Northern Plains and 
northern Rockies. At the surface, a high pressure is in far 
southern Canada, influencing the Dakotas and eastern Montana. 
Around the high is a stationary front from central Montana to 
Nebraska, and back up to Minnesota. A very slight wave in the 
zonal flow has created light rain showers in northern North 
Dakota today. 

Thursday another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms 
are possible in the evening. All of western and central North 
Dakota is in a level 1 risk, with a smaller area through the 
middle part of the state of a level 2 risk. A weak surface low 
pressure will move east across the International Border in the 
western half of the state. With at least 35 knots of shear, and 
the shear vector perpendicular to that stationary front, 
isolated super cells are possible in western and central North 
Dakota. With ample surface heating and moisture advecting into 
the state, the middle third of the state was upgraded to a level
2 risk. This moisture advection will create pockets of 2000 to 
3000 J/kg of MUCAPE.

The current forecast for hazards are hail size is up to 2 
inches and 60mph wind gusts. Convection will likely start 
discrete before becoming clusters as outflow boundaries collide 
through the event. Timing and location are unfortunately low 
confidence as the various CAMs have differences. The general 
consensus for a start time is in between 21 and 00z in western 
ND, and moving southeast, exiting our area by 10z. 

Looking ahead to this very hot weekend, a large upper level 
high will strengthen over the Desert Southwest. This will create
a ridge over the Northern Plains, allowing that clockwise 
moving high to push the hot air northward at the 850mb level. 
The current deterministic NBM temperature forecast continue to 
show lower triple digits for western and parts of central ND 
Sunday and Monday, but overall the extreme heat will last from 
Friday through at least Tuesday. One thing to note for Sunday 
and Monday, is that the deterministic temperatures have been the
75th percentile of the NBM, meaning there is likely a warm bias
occurring and actual temperatures won't be as high. This 
morning's run, already has come down closer to the 50th 
percentile, although that is still in the triple digits. Like 
every very warm day in the state, there will be a strong south 
wind, with gust up to 30mph through the weekend. 

The large upper high will slowly roll to the northeast and end 
up centered on the Central Plains by Monday. An Alberta Clipper 
moving through Minnesota will then squish the high back to the 
west. This will squeeze the very warm temperatures down to the 
South Dakota border, while the rest of the state drops to the 
80s or low 90s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility is generally expected at all 
terminals throughout the 00Z TAF period. Late tonight into 
Thursdaymorning, there will be some chances for scattered 
showers west of Highway 83 (which runs between Bismarck and 
Minot). Where these showers do develop, periods of MVFR ceilings
will be possible. Confidence in when and where these showers 
are too low to include mentions at any given TAF site at this 
time. Higher chances for showers and some thunderstorms will 
develop late Wednesday afternoon and evening, especially across 
the north. Winds are generally expected to remain light to very 
light this evening through Wednesday afternoon, gradually 
turning out of a generally easterly direction at the start of 
the TAF period to a more south southwesterly direction by the 
end of the TAF period. 

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Adam