FXUS63 KBIS 151946
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
246 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Northwest winds sustained to around 30 mph with peak gusts to
  55 mph continue this afternoon. Winds will slowly diminish
  this evening and overnight from northwest to southeast.

- Widespread freezing temperatures expected late tonight into
  early Friday morning, especially over western locations.

- Notably milder temperatures along with dry weather to end the
  week and start next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Currently, strong S/WV trough moving southeast across the 
Northern Plains today, with an associated sfc cold front now to
our south. Behind the frontal passage earlier, strong northwest
winds have developed along with the extensive low level stratus
filtering into the state. Peak gusts have been right around 50 
mph, and should continue to be gusty for several more hours till
diminishing this evening/early Friday morning. Thus wind 
headlines remain on track. With the mid level wave, 
isolated/scattered light rain showers moving south/southeast, so
will maintain this in the forecast. Best moisture accumulation
will be over my east, where a few hundreths will be possible.

S/WV troughing to our east tonight with a high amplitude ridge 
to our west. Strong surface high pressure builds into the 
western Dakotas later tonight, thus the decrease in winds 
forecast. In addition, CAA coupled with decreasing clouds and 
the decrease in winds will see temperatures dropping into the 
20s west and north central, and to near freezing south central.
Should remain above freezing southeast where winds and clouds 
linger the longest. Thus, we opted to issue a Freeze Warning for
western and much of central North Dakota late tonight through 
early Friday. 

South/southwest return flow for Friday, yet the cold start will
only see highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s despite a mostly clear
sky as well. Fire weather may become an issue southwest Friday
and Saturday, but right now looks sub-marginal. 

Upper level ridge to our west deamplifies into the weekend as 
it moves east, morphing into a quasi-zonal flow regime across 
the Northern Plains into next week. This pattern will bring dry 
weather conditions to the region, along with temperatures at or 
slightly above normal. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

A strong cold front will result in gusty northwesterly winds
today, linger into the evening hours. MVFR ceilings, along with
the potential for isolated/scattered showers, are also expected
for most of the state behind the front. Winds will diminish and
ceilings will improve late this evening through the overnight 
hours from northwest to southeast.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for 
NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-031>033-035-040>044-
055>062.
Freeze Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 8 AM CDT /7 AM 
MDT/ Friday for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-031>033-
035-040>044-055>062.
Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for NDZ023-025-036-037-
046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH