FXUS63 KBIS 161445 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 945 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low humidity and increasing southerly winds will result in near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and early evening over far southwest North Dakota. - Dry and mild over most locations this weekend through the middle of next week. - Unsettled weather possibly returns late next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 945 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 It's a cold morning across western and central North Dakota, with some locations over western North Dakota having dropped as low as 15 degrees overnight. More broadly, lows have been in the lower 20s to lower 30s across much of the forecast area, with all but the far southern James River Valley dropping to or below freezing. The Freeze Warning across the west and much of central North Dakota has been extended through 10Z (10 AM CDT / 09 AM MDT) this morning, and will be allowed to expire on time as temperatures have begun rising following the sun. Otherwise, no major adjustments to the forecast were performed at this time. UPDATE Issued at 633 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Going forecast remains in good shape as northwest winds continue to diminish. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Current surface analysis places low over the eastern Great Lakes region while high settles through the eastern Montana/Wyoming and the western Dakotas. Upper level analysis places trough over the upper Midwest, while ridge stretches from the northern Sierra northward into the Canadian Rockies. Over our area, winds continue to gradually diminish from west to east with the high sliding through. In addition, where winds have tapered off and skies have cleared over our northern/western areas, temperatures have dipped below freezing, thus the Freeze Warning remains in places. For today, surface high settles southeast with return flow setting up over western parts of our area, with southerly winds increasing. Upper ridge pushes east as a notable wave over the northern Pacific approaches shore. This will bring clearing skies and dry conditions to our area. Over far southwest North Dakota, humidity values are expected to dip into the 20s, which combined with the expected southerly winds will result in near critical fire weather conditions. On Saturday, upper ridge pushes over our area while aforementioned Pacific wave quickly passes over the Canadian Rockies pushing into the western Canadian Prairies late day. Surface low closes off over northern Alberta/Saskatchewan in response, with winds shifting southwesterly over our area. Temperatures will climb to about 10 to 20 degrees above average, warmest over the southwest where highs in the mid 70s are expected, with mainly lower 60s to lower 70s elsewhere. Upper wave continues its eastward push flattening out the ridge, while a modest cold front passes through our area as surface low works its way towards Hudson Bay late Saturday night into early Sunday. Though conditions remain dry, temperatures will be cooler with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Zonal flow remains in place to start the work week, with flow turning southwesterly towards mid-week as a Pacific low drops down along the West Coast. Conditions remain dry, with a very gradual warming trend over our area. Guidance then suggests that the low shifts easterly and opens up late week. Though the timing of this is a bit variable, it does bring precipitation chances to the forecast late week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 945 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Pockets of MVFR ceilings over far southwest and south central North Dakota continue to quickly erode this morning, with VFR ceilings and visibility then expected through the remainder of the TAF period. Southerly winds will be on the increase this afternoon over western North Dakota, spreading east this evening. In addition, low level wind shear is possible this evening into the overnight hours, particularly around the KMOT terminal. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Adam/JJS DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...JJS