FXUS63 KBIS 161930 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 230 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low humidity and increasing southerly winds will result in near critical fire weather conditions through the early evening over far southwest North Dakota. - Dry and mild over most locations this weekend through the middle of next week. - Unsettled weather possibly returns late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Cyclonic flow is found across the northern Plains this afternoon, with clearing skies as high pressure builds in over western North Dakota this afternoon. With the surface pressure gradient tightening between this approaching surface high and an exiting surface low to our east, breezy south winds sustained around 15 to 20 MPH and gusting as high as 30 MPH have developed. Breezy winds are expected to linger overnight as we remain fairly well mixed and the surface gradient is slow to relax. High temperatures this afternoon are forecast from the mid 40s in the James River Valley, up to the lower to mid 50s west. Dry conditions are expected across North Dakota, especially in the southwest where relative humidity values are expected to drop into the 20 percent range. With the gusty south winds this afternoon, near critical fire weather conditions will persist through the early evening. Chilly overnight conditions are expected again with the clear skies over the forecast area, though the sustained winds are expected to prevent another widespread freeze like we saw last night. A building upper level ridge across the Great Plains this weekend will promote mild and dry weather across much of western and central North Dakota. Gusty south to southwest winds sustained around 15 MPH and gusts up to 30 MPH will persist over much of the forecast area through Saturday afternoon, though are anticipated to rapidly diminish through the early evening. With the warm forecast highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s Saturday is expected to be even more dry than Friday, with minimum relative humidity dropping as low as 15 to 20 percent across much of the southwest. With the lower winds on Saturday, sub near critical fire weather conditions are currently expected, though we will continue to monitor forecast trends over the next few days. The upper level ridge is then expected to begin flattening through the day on Sunday as a northern stream waves passes through the Canadian Prairies. While highs in the 60s are still anticipated in the afternoon, clearing skies and very light winds could allow for another widespread freeze across much of the area Sunday night through Monday morning. Current ensemble probabilities of dropping to or below freezing is around 20 to 40 percent across much of the north and portions of the southwest Monday morning. With zonal flow then favored through the first half of the coming week, mild and dry weather is anticipated to continue through at least the mid week. Through this period, a Pacific Low is expected to make landfall in the southwestern CONUS before cutting through the Rockies up toward the northern Plains. Some variation in timing and relative strength of this upper level feature is found within the ensemble, but overall chances for precipitation is anticipated to increase starting Friday and into the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR ceilings and visibility are expected throughout the 18Z TAF period. LLWS is expected at KMOT, KBIS, KJMS early this evening until just after midnight CST. Gusty south to southwest winds are expected to develop over portions of western and central North Dakota this afternoon through this evening, with sustained speeds up to 20knots and gusts up to 30 knots, before somewhat diminishing overnight through Saturday morning. Winds will redevelop across central North Dakota late Saturday through the end of TAF period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Adam AVIATION...Adam