FXUS63 KBIS 200252 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 952 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures remain well below normal through tonight when lows could fall to near or below freezing across much of eastern and central North Dakota. - Slightly warmer Wednesday through Friday, with medium chances for showers and occasional thunderstorms beginning Wednesday evening. - Above normal temperatures favored this weekend and especially early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 940 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A little warm advection and a weak impulse along the International Border was enough to create an isolated shower in the north central this evening. Webcams showed some rain hitting the ground. Added a few hours of pops to cover this. Currently the shower is moving through Renville County and into Western Bottineau county near Lansford. Observation near Bowbells earlier indicated some IP with the cell earlier, which isn't surprising given the cold temperatures aloft. Otherwise not much going on this evening with remaining clouds dissipating. Current dewpoints are in the low to mid 30s. No changes to current frost/freeze headlines. UPDATE Issued at 548 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 No significant changes needed for the early evening update. Winds will subside over central ND. In the west, winds are beginning to shift southerly. This trend will spread east into central ND tonight. Clear to partly cloudy skies this evening with frost/freeze highlights over all of central and portions of western ND. Increasing winds and clouds later tonight in the west are expected to limit the extent of any frost, and keep temperatures above freezing, especially in the far west. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An upper level trough continues to dig across Western CONUS locking in a cooler airmass across the Plains. Surface high pressure continues to move overhead. This will help clear skies this afternoon and lead to cool overnight temperatures. High temperatures are forecast to warm into the 50s to 60s across the area. Clear skies and radiational cooling are forecast to lead to low temperatures in the upper 20s to upper 30s. There is a good shot of freeze and frost occurring tonight. A Freeze Warning has been issued for all of eastern and parts of central North Dakota while a Frost Advisory has been issued across parts for southwestern and central North Dakota. Tomorrow, temperatures are forecast to warm into the 60s and 70s. Wind will shift from northwesterly tonight to southeasterly tomorrow as surface high pressure shifts off to the southeast in Minnesota and surface low pressure moves into eastern Montana. This will lead to breezy conditions across the central and eastern half of the state by tomorrow afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to move into the northwest by the afternoon hours as an upper level wave approaches the region. An upper level low is forecast to stall out over southern Saskatchewan Thursday and Friday. Cyclonic flow aloft will usher in daily chances for showers and thunderstorms until the end of the week. There is around 70 percent chance that that portions of western and central North Dakota could see up to 0.25 of rain with locally higher amounts possible. This cooler pattern will keep temperatures in the 60s to 70s daily until warming up by the weekend. The NBM 25th percentile begins to push the upper 70s to lower 80s and the NBM 75th percentile has lower 90s. There is fairly high confidence for warm weather to start off next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 548 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the 00Z TAF period. Northwest surface flow this evening will become light then shift south to southeast by Wednesday morning. Stronger winds aloft will result in a period of LLWS at KDIK and KXWA late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Mainly mid and high clouds AOA 6KFT develop later tonight through the day Wednesday. An isolated sprinkle is possible later tonight through Wednesday morning. Low precipitation chances move into western ND Wednesday afternoon, but too much uncertainty to include a mention of showers at TAF sites ATTIM. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Wednesday for NDZ003-004-012-019-020-022-035-041-042-044- 055>062. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for NDZ005-013- 023-025-036-037-046>048-050-051. && $$ UPDATE...TWH DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...TWH