FXUS64 KBMX 081838 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 138 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 136 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026 - Thunderstorms: Daily opportunities for mainly afternoon and evening storms will remain in the forecast for now through the beginning of next week. A few of these storms will be capable of normal summertime hazards such as gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. && .DISCUSSION... (Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1156 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026 The region remains influenced by a weak mid-level closed low situated over the Central Mississippi River Valley, which continues to provide synoptic lift. This system, interacting with remnant outflow boundaries, will drive the increase in scattered to numerous showers and storms across the area. While activity is expected to peak during the afternoon, particularly across northern counties, some storms may persist into the overnight hours over the next 48 hours. Expected hazards include frequent lightning, heavy tropical downpours, and gusty winds of 20- 30 mph. Persistent hot and humid conditions will continue to impact the area, keeping afternoon highs in the low to mid-90s and heat indices at or above 100 degrees, consistent with the broader pattern of dangerous heat persisting across the Southeast. The closed low will gradually drift northeastward and weaken, leading to a decrease in overall forcing and storm coverage. By Friday, rain chances will decrease and become confined primarily to the eastern portion of the area, returning to the typical isolated to scattered, diurnally driven convective regime. Heat indices will also increase by Friday into Saturday with readings possibly reaching 105 degrees, which may approach or meet Heat Advisory criteria. A pattern shift begins on Sunday as an anomalous 500 mb ridge expands across the CONUS, eventually pushing a rare July surface front southward into the area. This boundary, in tandem with mid- level shortwave impulses embedded in northwesterly flow, is forecast to trigger widespread shower and storm development for both Sunday and Monday, with heavy rainfall and gusty winds remaining the primary concerns. By the middle of next week, model confidence decreases due to differences between deterministic and ensemble guidance, though confidence is increasing for above- average temperatures across the region. 16 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 136 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026 Generally VFR conditions are expected outside of storms. Widely scattered diurnally enhanced summertime convection will be possible for this afternoon. Only confident enough for a PROB30 group at TCL, BHM, and EET. It is too hard to pinpoint. Will be monitoring closely for any needed amendments. Otherwise, winds will be out of the west to west-northwest 5-10kts outside of convection with mixing and light and variable overnight. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue. Thunderstorms will remain in the forecast during the afternoon hours, with this activity resembling the usual, diurnally driven storms we're used to seeing in the summer. Given the higher MinRH values, and afternoon thunderstorm chances, fire weather concerns will remain low through the beginning of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 71 91 72 91 / 20 50 30 50 Anniston 72 90 73 90 / 20 40 30 50 Birmingham 74 91 74 92 / 20 40 30 50 Tuscaloosa 73 91 74 92 / 20 40 20 30 Calera 73 94 73 95 / 20 40 30 40 Auburn 74 91 74 91 / 10 40 30 30 Montgomery 75 93 74 93 / 10 40 20 20 Troy 74 93 73 92 / 10 40 20 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...16 AVIATION...08