FXUS64 KBMX 081947
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
247 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 243 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026

- Thunderstorms: Daily opportunities for mainly afternoon and
  evening storms will remain in the forecast for now through the
  beginning of next week. A few of these storms will be capable of
  normal summertime hazards such as gusty winds, frequent
  lightning, and heavy downpours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026

In the lower levels this afternoon, a stationary boundary is
situated well to our northwest and north, from AR into TN/KY. It
will meander a bit through Thursday before fizzling out. In the
upper levels, there is a weakening upper low over the Mid MS
River Valley that is expected to open up and be absorbed into the
main zonal flow to the north of it by late Thursday. Through the
short term that will help to focus our diurnal convection
generally to the northern third of Central Alabama with more
isolated activity in the south. Also in the upper levels, flat
ridging over the SW US coast is expected to expand across the
Western US this weekend. Guidance has a shortwave progressing
eastward out of it Friday that will allow for troughing to build
across portions of Eastern Conus this weekend. That with plenty
of low level onshore flow moisture will allow for continued
increased storm chances for this weekend. In addition, the upper
flow will in turn help to nudge a rare July surface front
southward. There is a medium chance that this front may have
enough push to get through Central Alabama during the first part
of next week in the Monday and Tuesday time frame. The extra
cloud cover and rain chances will help to keep temperature down a
couple of degrees. However, we are not expecting any major cool
down at this time as the boundary may stall and push back
northward by the middle of next week.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026

Generally VFR conditions are expected outside of storms. Widely
scattered diurnally enhanced summertime convection will be
possible for this afternoon. Only confident enough for a
PROB30 group at TCL, BHM, and EET. It is too hard to pinpoint.
Will be monitoring closely for any needed amendments. Otherwise,
winds will be out of the west to west-northwest 5-10kts outside
of convection with mixing and light and variable overnight.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue. Thunderstorms
will remain in the forecast during the afternoon hours, with this
activity resembling the usual, diurnally driven storms we're used
to seeing in the summer. Given the higher MinRH values, and 
afternoon thunderstorm chances, fire weather concerns will remain 
low through the beginning of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  91  72  91 /  20  50  30  50 
Anniston    72  90  73  90 /  20  40  30  50 
Birmingham  74  91  74  92 /  20  40  30  50 
Tuscaloosa  73  91  74  92 /  20  40  20  30 
Calera      73  94  73  95 /  20  40  30  40 
Auburn      74  91  74  91 /  10  40  30  30 
Montgomery  75  93  74  93 /  10  40  20  20 
Troy        74  93  73  92 /  10  40  20  30 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08