FXUS64 KBMX 160500
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1200 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1158 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026

- Fall Weather: A cold front will move through the region Friday
  into Friday evening, bringing cooler temperatures and breezy
  conditions to the area behind it for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Friday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026

This evening we have a cold front extending from the Great Lakes
SWWD to AR and swinging back into Central TX. This front should
get enough of a favorable push from the upper flow to move
through C AL and finally allow fall to make its arrival in the
area on Friday. There may be just enough moisture with the help
of frontal forcing to allow for a few isolated showers Friday
afternoon and evening. No TS or heavy rain is anticipated.

However, before the front moves through, we will still see enough
warming Friday for max temps to be above normal going into the
80s. The exception may be in the far NW counties where there will
be less time to heat up before the front arrives where it may not
get out of the 70s. Breezy and gusty at times NRLY winds should
be felt Friday afternoon, that night and on into Saturday with
tight surface pressure gradients behind the front. Cool fall
readings are on tap with lows in the 40s for many on Friday night
and for all Saturday/Sunday nights with highs generally in the
60s over the weekend. Our airmass should begin to moderate for
next week as our flow becomes more ERLY, but overall still dry
with Eastern Conus surface ridging.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 743 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected for most tonight with surface ridging
in place and light/variable to near calm winds. The exception will
be at TCL/MGM where some patchy ground fog may occur in the pre-
dawn hours through shortly after sunrise. I have a TEMPO from
9-13z for this. Otherwise, a front will be moving through the 
area on Friday. Winds will shift to W then NW during the day as it
move through. Some may be gusty during the afternoon. May not 
shift at AUO until the end of the period though. There is a low 
probability of a rain shower, but as overall moisture is limited 
will forgo mention in TAFs ATTM. 

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A cold front will move through the area Friday into Friday
evening leading to gusty winds, isolated light showers, and much
drier and cooler conditions behind the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     61  84  47  65 /   0  20  10   0 
Anniston    63  85  47  65 /   0  20  10   0 
Birmingham  64  84  48  65 /   0  20  10   0 
Tuscaloosa  63  86  49  68 /   0  20  10   0 
Calera      63  85  48  65 /   0  20  10   0 
Auburn      64  84  50  67 /   0  20  20   0 
Montgomery  64  87  51  69 /   0  20  20   0 
Troy        63  86  49  68 /   0  20  20   0 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08