FXUS64 KBMX 181733 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1233 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1231 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 - Rain chances increase starting Tuesday night and become a daily feature through the weekend as a cold front stalls across the region. - Warm conditions continue to start out the work week with highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. && .DISCUSSION... (Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1038 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026 As of writing, a few thunderstorms are ongoing across the southeastern portion of the CWA. The majority of convection this afternoon remained across the border in Georgia where low level convergence was maximized within a corridor of slightly higher moisture. Monday looks to feature a low (20-30%) chance for showers and storms as a passing H85-H7 shortwave interacts with an expanding plume of healthy moisture. Best chances will be across our southern and eastern areas. Rain chances begin to increase late Tuesday into Wednesday morning as the first of a series of shortwaves pass through the region. The upper ridge that has been influencing the area over the last few days will lose its grasp by mid week as an upper trough begins to move across the Plains. An associated cold front will sink across the southeast Wednesday into Thursday, eventually stalling and lingering through the end of the week. As a result, we will see continued chances for showers and thunderstorms. By the weekend, the stalled front retreats back to the north, leaving ample moisture in place across the region. Therefore, rain chances remain in the forecast. 95/Castillo && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours outside of any convection. Sufficient moisture and weak confluence on the west side of the Bermuda high will result in isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA initially in the vicinity of MGM, then potentially northward to BHM/EET. However, coverage will be limited by ridging aloft. PROB30s are included at MGM/EET/BHM, while at AUO/TCL probabilities are only 20 percent and will not be mentioned. Variable gusty winds may occur with any TSRA. 32/JDavis && .FIRE WEATHER... Monday afternoon will feature low chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly across our southern and eastern areas. However, most locations will likely remain dry. Rain chances increase by mid week and continue into the weekend as a front stalls across the region. Fire weather concerns are not anticipated over the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 65 88 65 87 / 10 10 10 70 Anniston 65 88 66 86 / 10 0 10 60 Birmingham 70 89 70 87 / 30 0 10 70 Tuscaloosa 69 90 69 88 / 20 0 20 50 Calera 67 90 67 88 / 30 0 10 60 Auburn 67 89 68 88 / 10 0 0 30 Montgomery 68 90 69 89 / 20 0 10 40 Troy 66 90 68 89 / 20 0 10 40 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...95/Castillo AVIATION...32/JDavis