FXUS65 KBOI 081926
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
126 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorms across portions of southern Idaho may produce
  outflow wind gusts up to 40-60 mph through this evening.

- Hot with breezy afternoon winds through the weekend.
 
- Shower and thunderstorm chances return early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Friday Night/...
Thunderstorms got off to an early start today with the first 
strike hitting before 10AM this morning. Activity will continue 
into the early evening bringing the potential for local wind 
gusts up to 60 mph. The strongest outflow winds will be focused 
east of Hwy 51 and Mountain Home and south of Hwy 20 out to 
Fairfield. It's not unreasonable that a westward propagating 
outflow extends further into the Treasure Valley this evening 
though it is going to be a race between thunderstorm outflows 
and an evening wind push from the northwest. For now, expect the
northwest winds to win the race for most of the Treasure 
Valley. These winds will first push through SE Oregon counties 
early this evening, bringing gusts 30 to 40 mph in the typically
winder locations. A quieter hot and dry pattern settles in 
after this evening. High temperatures on Thursday are a few 
degrees cooler than today with northwest winds ramping up in the
afternoon. The heat builds on Friday as an upper high over the 
Desert SW expands northward. This will put lower elevations near
100 and mountain valleys near 90. Winds will be lighter at 
lower elevations as southwest flow aloft brings breezy winds to 
higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
Hot temperatures will persist throughout the long-term period, 
with the well-advertised ridge shifting east over the 
Rockies/High Plains. this will bring lower elevation 
temperatures in the upper-90s and around triple digits. Saturday
appears to be the hottest day of the period, with temperatures 
throughout lower elevations near 100 degrees and localized areas
near 105 degrees for daytime highs. Overnight lows will 
generally stay 5-10 degrees above normal as well.

Come Monday, the signal for a monsoonal push remains, with
ensemble guidance continuing to carry precipitable water values
around the 95th percentile of climatology. This moisture will 
help reintroduce thunderstorms into the forecast come Monday and
beyond, especially over higher terrain. With that moisture, 
flash flooding could be a concern, especially over recent burn 
scars. Another aspect will be the lightning over dry fuels after
a long stretch of hot and dry conditions. The antecedent dry 
conditions combined with lightning potential increases the 
concern of new fire starts, especially if initial storms take on
a dry posture. Both of these hazards will need to be monitored 
in the days to come.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday through Thursday/...
Issued 1123 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026

Mainly VFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
in far SW and S-central Idaho, including KJER/KTWF. Storms 
capable of outflows to 30-50 kt, brief heavy rain, and blowing
dust. Localized terrain obstruction from wildfire smoke. High
density altitude this week due to heat. Surface winds outside 
of storms: W-NW 5-15 kt, with gusts to 25 kt late afternoon and 
evening, except 25-35 kt near KBKE-KONO. Winds aloft at 10kft 
MSL: S-W 5-15 kt. 

KBOI...VFR. High density altitude this week due to heat. 
Foothills obscured in smoke at times from nearby fires. Surface
winds: NW 8-13 kt with gusts to around 20 kt this afternoon.
Winds aloft at 10kft MSL over KBOI: SW-W 10-15 kt.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ423-424-
     426.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....NF
AVIATION.....NF