FXUS65 KBOU 090810
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
210 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Another round of scattered to numerous thunderstorms Thursday,
  with the severe threat expanding further west to the Front 
  Range.
 
- Prolonged period of hot temperatures arrive Saturday, lasting 
  through at least Tuesday. Thunderstorm chances remain low during
  this period.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 132 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Moisture will remain elevated today, with dewpoints in the upper 40s 
to potentially low 60s for the plains this afternoon. This moisture 
and steep low to mid level lapse rates will lead to decent 
instability today (MLCAPEs around 1000 to 1800 J/kg). The 
instability combined with weak upslope from east/southeast surface 
winds, a weak shortwave moving over the area, and 0-6 km shear 
around 30 to 45kts will provide the necessary ingredients for 
scattered to numerous thunderstorms, some of which could be 
severe. The main severe hazards today will be large hail and 
strong winds, however we could see a landspout form if a storm 
develops near the DCVZ. There will also be the potential for 
localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding across the plains. 
Showers and storms are expected to form in the higher terrain and 
foothills in the early afternoon before moving east across the 
plains throughout the afternoon and evening. 

The upper level ridging will begin to build towards the area on 
Friday. Weak subsidence on the backside of today's shortwave and 
ahead of the upper level ridge will put a damper on our storm 
chances for Friday. However, storm chances won't go away 
completely. Dewpoints are forecast to remain in the 40s and 50s 
with decent instability. Shear looks to weaken slightly for the 
area on Friday, especially in our northern counties which will 
limit the severe potential. The main question that remains is 
where the outflow boundaries will set up on Friday from the 
convection on Thursday. Convergence along any residual boundaries 
and the weak upslope flow could be enough to trigger some more 
isolated convection Friday afternoon, but the severe threat will 
be lower (in both intensity and coverage) compared to Thursday.

The upper level ridge will continue to build over the area for the 
weekend. The center of the high will move northeast throughout the 
weekend, parking over the NE/SD/IA area through the middle of next 
week. Under this strong ridge, we'll see large scale subsidence and 
hot temperatures. Temperatures are forecast to reach into the 90s to 
around 103 degrees in the plains for the first part of next week. 
The warmest temperatures are forecast to be in the northern I-25 
corridor area. Right now, we have Major Heat Risk for portions of 
the urban corridor and I-25 corridor for Monday and Tuesday, 
including Denver, Boulder, and the Fort Collins area. This means 
there is a major risk for heat related illness in these areas, 
especially for people without effective cooling and proper hydration.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday/...
Issued at 1151 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Winds will follow typical drainage patterns overnight, with 
speeds around 5 to 10kts. Winds will become more variable in the 
early to mid morning, before eventually turning to the northeast 
by the late morning to early afternoon. Another round of storms 
are expected this afternoon. Timing will be similar to yesterdays 
storms, with the most likely time of 19Z to 23Z for KBJC and 20Z 
to 23Z for KDEN and KAPA. Erratic and gusty winds will be possible
during this time period, due to strong outflow from storms. 
Storms should move out of the area by 00Z. The winds after this 
activity moves through will be tricky once again, thanks to 
outflow boundaries from the storms to the east potentially causing
sudden wind shifts into the late evening.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...AP