FXUS65 KBOU 230955 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 355 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms through Thursday. A risk of a couple severe storms each day. - A few severe storms are expected across the plains again today, with isolated severe winds and hail possible. Best chances should stay east of the urban corridor. - Slightly cooler (but still above) normal temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday. - Gradual drying and hotter temperatures by the end of the week and through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/... Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Showers have persisted through the night across the eastern plains after yesterday's severe storms lasted well into the evening. These should continue to move eastward and completely out of our forecast area right around sunrise this morning. Today is looking to bring similar conditions to what we saw yesterday, with scattered afternoon showers expected to develop across the higher elevations and push eastward across the plains where better low- level moisture and instability will reside. For today, however, the better environment for severe potential is expected to move a little eastward from yesterday, with a slightly lower concern for the urban corridor today. There will still be a nonzero chance for some strong to severe winds, however, as DCAPE is expected to range from 1200-1500 J/kg that will support an elevated wind threat. PWAT values remain elevated today as well (ranging from .8 to 1.5 inches across the lower elevations), that will keep the potential for some localized heavy rainfall with the stronger storms. MLCAPE is expected to be greatest generally east of Denver International Airport, with upwards of 1500-2500 J/kg portrayed in forecast soundings. Shear will remain the limiting factor for more organized convection today, but 0-6 km bulk shear should get up to 30-35 kts, which will be enough to see a few more organized cells. Temperatures are expected to warm into the low to mid 90s before storms start and bring some heat relief. It will be a wash, rinse, and repeat forecast through at least Tuesday, with scattered afternoon showers and storms containing an isolated severe threat. The pattern doesn't change significantly outside of the upper-level ridge flattening out as a shortwave treks across the northern Rockies today and Monday. Temperatures will cool slightly on Tuesday and Wednesday before the ridge rebuilds across the Rockies, and warmer and drier conditions gradually work their way back for next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday/... Issued at 1144 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 While the majority of showers and storms have subsided late tonight, the latest radar scans show a strong storm currently over the Palmer Divide southeast of all Denver TAF sites. While this storm isn't expected to directly impact the TAF sites, there is potential we see a southeasterly outflow make it to the TAF sites in the next few hours. Will continue to monitor and AMD if this is expected to occur. Winds have finally transitioned to a more drainage flow, with a few 20-25 kt gusts currently observed around the KDEN airfield that should gradually diminish over the next hour. We should see drainage winds turn clockwise through the morning, becoming NE for the afternoon before showers and storm chances will increase by 20-22Z. While there is a TEMPO in place for thunderstorms in the TAFs, there is a more likely chance that the airports are impacted by gusty outflows with shifting winds (30-40 kts), with around a 30%-40% chance for storms. While the best timing for impacts is expected to be from 21-24Z, a PROB30 is in place until 2Z as there may be some lingering showers and outflows through then. Some high-res guidance does show a few showers redeveloping between 4Z-6Z, but chances are too low to add to the TAF at this time. Ceilings should remain about the same as Saturday (8,000-9,000 feet AGL at their lowest). && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...9 AVIATION...9