FXUS61 KBOX 080515 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 115 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Cancelled the flood watch for CT and lowered rainfall totals across Connecticut and Central Massachusetts to 1 to 2 inches. Otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast && .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain continues through this evening, shifting offshore overnight. Minor ponding in poor drainage areas possible. Dry conditions Wednesday with seasonable temperatures. - Warm, humid weather returns late in the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible both days but better chances looking to be on Friday. - Drier, seasonably cool and less humid weather for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain continues through this evening, shifting offshore overnight. Minor ponding in poor drainage areas possible. Dry conditions Wednesday with seasonable temperatures. Surface low pressure slowly shifts offshore tonight bring the bulk of the rain with it. Rain continues for the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening with a brief pocket or two of heavier rain rates possible. Rain slowly shifts eastward tonight tapering off from west to east. We have had plenty of beneficial rainfall over the last 36 hours or so with 1"+ in many areas and 4"+ in isolated areas on the Cape/Islands. There have been reports of ponding water on roads and minor flooding in poor drainage urban areas, so expect that to be possible through this evening in spots. Overall not expecting a widespread flash flood threat with perhaps another few tenths to a half inch through the overnight. Any remaining showers exit the outer Cape and Islands before sunrise. High pressure settles in for Wednesday resulting in a dry day with seasonable temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s. Winds will be light out of the N/NW with sea breezes possible along the east coast. KEY MESSAGE 2...Warm, humid weather returns late in the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible both days but better chances looking to be on Friday. After a couple of soggy and seasonably cooler days to begin the workweek, by Thursday and Friday we turn warmer, humid and more unsettled again. Amid a broader WSW flow aloft, a weak disturbance aloft in that flow in vicinity of the lower Ohio Valley could bring some risk for scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly to southwestern/southern portions of Southern New England later Thursday into Thursday night. Still think the better potential for storms is closer to the mid-Atlantic/north-central Appalachians closer to the disturbance aloft, so PoPs on Thursday are on the low side. Friday looks to offer a better potential for thunderstorms as a sagging cold frontal boundary from northern New England interacts with a warm and rather sticky (e.g dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s) airmass. Neither day harbors much in the way of severe weather potential with poor middle-tropospheric lapse rates leading to tall- skinny CAPE profiles and deep layer shear in the 30 kt range, and this is reflected by low to nil severe weather probs per NSSL/CSU severe weather machine learning guidance. Will point out the 12z deterministic GFS seems an outlier compared to multi-model consensus and its own ensemble, which offers a pretty coherent sfc low trekking through Southern New England on Friday and would bring another soaking rain. Warm and humid weather prevails both days with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s, supporting heat indices in the mid 90s to mid/upper 90s, more likely falling short of heat headlines. KEY MESSAGE 3...Drier, seasonably cool and less humid weather for the weekend. For the weekend the 500 mb pattern transitions to one of cyclonic flow/troughing in themean, which favors cooler temperatures (low to mid 80s) and lower humidity levels. Weekend appears favorable for outdoor plans with nice summer weather. We'll be on the western periphery of a pretty impressive upper level ridge of nearly 600 dm building over the northern/central Plains and upper Midwest. We could have to keep an eye on possible storminess pivoting around the ridge but it looks as though the weekend ends up drier than not. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z TAF Update: Wednesday: High confidence in trends but moderate on timing. Lingering sub-VFR ceilings and areas BR for BOS, PVD and the lift through 14z, and around 16z on the Cape. VFR thereafter. Northerly winds around 5 kt, but possible late-day seabreeze at BOS, after 19z if it develops. Wednesday night...High confidence. VFR. SW winds 5-10 kts. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Majority of the rain has ended but areas of -DZ are possible thru 10z. Ceilings will be slowly lifting but not likely to go full VFR until mid- morning Wed. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday through Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Friday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday through Sunday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Tuesday Night...High confidence. Winds decrease across the inner waters allowing SCAs to drop off this evening. In the coastal waters, NE winds with gusts around 25 kts. Seas build to 5 ft tonight with areas of 6 ft possible in the outer waters. Winds decrease Wednesday morning; however, SCAs may need to be extended through Wednesday night for outer waters due to 5 ft seas. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ250- 254-255. && $$ DISCUSSION...Loconto/Mensch AVIATION...Loconto/FT MARINE...Loconto/Mensch