FXUS64 KBRO 072315 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
615 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 612 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

* Hot conditions continue through the week. Moderate (level 2 of 
  4) Heat Risk each day, mainly in the Valley becoming more 
  widespread this weekend. Heat indices will climb to between 100 
  and 110 degrees each day.

* Daily thunderstorm chances will be low (generally under 20%) 
  through midweek, before increasing on Friday.

* There is generally a low risk of rip currents at area beaches 
  likely increasing to moderate late this week. 
 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 106 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

An upper level trough of low pressure extending from New England 
southwestward and sfc high pressure over the SE U.S. has led to a bit 
more unsettled weather than previously anticipated. While rain 
chances overall will remain low (20% or less) over the next few 
days, high moisture content will allow any thunderstorm or shower 
activity to produce heavy rainfall. This could lead to localized 
areas of ponding of water of roadways and low lying/poor drainage 
areas.

Late week, moisture will deepen allowing for slightly higher 
chances of precipitation, especially Friday afternoon (20-30%). 
The high PWATs will lead to areas of heavy rain with localized 
areas of ponding of water. Rain chances will taper off through 
Saturday.

Temperature wise, not expecting much change in what we have seen.
Any cloud cover and precipitation chances will help cool things 
off and lower the heat risk at times through the week. Expecting 
generally Moderate Heat Risk across the region, especially headed
into the weekend and next week. Heat indices are expected to be 
between 100 and 110 degrees each day.

There is a low risk of rip currents at area beaches through could 
increase to moderate by thins weekend. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with
breezy southeasterly winds diminishing this evening and returning
mid to late Wednesday morning. An isolated shower or thunderstorm
along the sea breeze may develop Wednesday afternoon and progress
from east to west.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 106 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Favorable marine conditons will prevail on the waters off the lower 
Texas coast. Generally seas of 2-3 feet increasing to 4 feet over
the weekend are expected with 5 to 7 second periods. Isolated 
showers or thunderstorms could lead to locally higher winds and 
seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             80  94  79  93 /   0  10  10  20 
HARLINGEN               77  96  75  94 /   0  10  10  20 
MCALLEN                 79  99  78  97 /   0  20   0  10 
RIO GRANDE CITY         78  99  76  98 /  10  10  10  10 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  88  81  87 /   0  10  10  20 
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     79  92  78  91 /   0  10  10  20 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68-McGinnis
LONG TERM....68-McGinnis
AVIATION...56-Hallman