FXUS64 KBRO 150413 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1113 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1100 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - A cold front Friday will bring strong winds, cooler temperatures, and coastal hazards Friday and Saturday. - A Gale Watch is in effect for 1 PM Friday to 1 PM Saturday. - Low to moderate rain chances Friday along a passing cold front, with greatest chances (40-50%) along the immediate coast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 More warm, dry conditions are expected today as subsidence promotes drier air across deep S TX. This will suppress rain chances and keep heat indices in the 90s to low 100s. A cold front moving through the region Friday will limit Friday highs to the 80s. The forecast has been trending drier given the relatively dry air ahead of the front, with most places expected to see low rain chances (15-35%) Friday and little to no measurable rain. The greatest rain chances (40-50%) are along the immediate coast, with rainfall totals through Sunday of an inch or less expected. Strong northerly winds will develop behind the front, with gusts of 30-35 mph possible by Friday afternoon. A secondary surge of high pressure behind the front will bring potential for stronger winds overnight Friday, with gusts of 45-50+ mph possible. Wind Advisories will likely be needed along the immediate coast late Friday into Saturday, and are possible as far inland as Brooks and Hidalgo counties. There is a 10-20% chance of wind gusts of 55mph or greater east of US-281 during this period. Be sure to secure any decorations or loose objects outdoors before Friday. Much drier air filtering in behind the front may lead to elevated fire weather concerns Friday afternoon and Saturday. The strongest winds should begin diminishing before the driest conditions arrive Saturday afternoon, when RH values could fall to 20-40%. However, strong winds overnight Friday combined with RH values in the 30-40% range could require a Rangeland Fire Discussion for counties along and east of US-281. Strong northerly winds over the Gulf will build seas and increase the risk of life-threatening rip currents, high surf, and coastal flooding along the lower TX coast. Cooler air behind the front will bring highs in the 70s Saturday and overnight lows in the 50s and 60s. Temperatures begin rebounding Sunday with highs in the 80s, gradually climbing into the 90s by midweek. Rain chances may also begin to increase again midweek. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 611 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the cycle. Gusty southeasterly winds around 25 kts will continue just past sunset, decreasing to 5-10 kts overnight. Few to broken clouds between 025-050 will continue this evening, with occasional BKN layers passing over a field. Gusty winds to 20 kts may return at the tail end of the 06Z TAF cycle Thursday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1100 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Moderate southeasterly flow and moderate seas 3-5 ft will continue today. Winds shift northerly Friday morning as a cold front passes, increasing winds to 20 knots by late morning with gusts of 30-35 knots. Seas increase to 9-12 feet late Friday, with gustier winds 40 kts or greater possible overnight. A Gale Watch is in effect for 1 PM Friday to 1 PM Saturday. There are increased chances (40-70%) of showers and thunderstorms along the front Friday, with low chances in the offshore waters lingering into Saturday. Gale conditions should lessen Saturday afternoon, with Advisory conditions lasting into Saturday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 92 76 90 74 / 10 0 010 HARLINGEN 94 73 93 71 / 10 0 0 10 MCALLEN 97 77 96 74 / 10 10 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 98 76 95 72 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 79 85 78 / 10 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 75 88 74 / 10 0 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...69-HK LONG TERM....69-HK AVIATION...69-HK