FXUS61 KBTV 081822 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 222 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 222 PM EDT Wednesday... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 222 PM EDT Wednesday... 1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow. 2. A warming trend and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected through the first half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 222 PM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front passes through the region late in the day tomorrow and tomorrow night, bringing some showers and thunderstorms. Before then, a very weak area of low pressure will track up the Saint Lawrence Valley tomorrow and tomorrow evening. Most of the rain during the day will fall along a stationary warm front oriented west to east along and north of the international border. Thankfully, the synoptic forcing will be weak and the atmosphere will lack some components for heavy rainfall, so any flooding remains unlikely despite a potentially problematic synoptic setup. The rain will fall in multiple rounds that are moving and have gaps in between them. These showers and storms will move southeast through the region later in the afternoon and in the evening. In northern areas, 0-6 KM shear looks to reach 30-35 KT, while it looks to remain well under 30 KT farther south. CAPE values look to range in the 500-750 J range where clouds associated with this initial rain do not remain in place. This leads to a marginal threat for severe weather, where isolated strong to severe storms are possible, mainly across northern areas. However, poor lapse rates and dry air aloft will further lower the severe threat. The main threat would be damaging winds. Behind the front, cooler and drier air infiltrates the region on Friday and will remain in place for the weekend. High temperatures this weekend look to be in the upper 70s and 80s, while lows should be in the 50s to around 60. Humidity will be relatively low and dry weather will prevail through the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2: Ridging will build into the Northern Plains early next week while an upper trough exits to our east. This will place northern NY and New England under northwest flow. Models continue to indicate a couple of weak fronts/surface troughs to ride through this northwest flow and cross our region. However, timing varies quite a bit from model and run to run, leading to considerable uncertainty. Both moisture and warmth will increase through this period, with highs approaching 90F and dewpoints rising into the 60s. With this in mind, any thunderstorms could be on the strong side if any boundaries/fronts happen to push across the region during peak heating. The exact timing is difficult to pin point this far out though, especially given the differences in model solutions, so have stayed with NBM/WPC forecast for now, with 25-40% PoPs each afternoon. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18Z Thursday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the entire TAF period. FEW-SCT clouds AOA 5000 ft this afternoon will erode overnight, with winds becoming light and variable. There are some indications that KMPV could see another round of early morning fog, but confidence is not enough to include in the TAF at this time. Otherwise, clouds start to increase after 12z Thu, especially in northern areas as a cold front approaches the international border. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected with the frontal passage, but the bulk of this activity will occur after 18z, so have not included in the TAF at this time. Winds remaining less than 10 kt through 18z Thu. Outlook... Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Hastings AVIATION...Hastings