FXUS61 KBTV 082323 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 723 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 222 PM EDT Wednesday... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 222 PM EDT Wednesday... 1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow. 2. A warming trend and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected through the first half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 222 PM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front passes through the region late in the day tomorrow and tomorrow night, bringing some showers and thunderstorms. Before then, a very weak area of low pressure will track up the Saint Lawrence Valley tomorrow and tomorrow evening. Most of the rain during the day will fall along a stationary warm front oriented west to east along and north of the international border. Thankfully, the synoptic forcing will be weak and the atmosphere will lack some components for heavy rainfall, so any flooding remains unlikely despite a potentially problematic synoptic setup. The rain will fall in multiple rounds that are moving and have gaps in between them. These showers and storms will move southeast through the region later in the afternoon and in the evening. In northern areas, 0-6 KM shear looks to reach 30-35 KT, while it looks to remain well under 30 KT farther south. CAPE values look to range in the 500-750 J range where clouds associated with this initial rain do not remain in place. This leads to a marginal threat for severe weather, where isolated strong to severe storms are possible, mainly across northern areas. However, poor lapse rates and dry air aloft will further lower the severe threat. The main threat would be damaging winds. Behind the front, cooler and drier air infiltrates the region on Friday and will remain in place for the weekend. High temperatures this weekend look to be in the upper 70s and 80s, while lows should be in the 50s to around 60. Humidity will be relatively low and dry weather will prevail through the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2: Ridging will build into the Northern Plains early next week while an upper trough exits to our east. This will place northern NY and New England under northwest flow. Models continue to indicate a couple of weak fronts/surface troughs to ride through this northwest flow and cross our region. However, timing varies quite a bit from model and run to run, leading to considerable uncertainty. Both moisture and warmth will increase through this period, with highs approaching 90F and dewpoints rising into the 60s. With this in mind, any thunderstorms could be on the strong side if any boundaries/fronts happen to push across the region during peak heating. The exact timing is difficult to pin point this far out though, especially given the differences in model solutions, so have stayed with NBM/WPC forecast for now, with 25-40% PoPs each afternoon. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 00Z Friday...Generally VFR conditions are expected over the next several hours. South or southwest winds may remain at KBTV and KMSS, but winds will trend light and variable for most. Just off the ground, it seems there will be some wind that should prevent fog, but they slacken some near KMPV. Crossover temperatures will be tough to reach, and so radiation fog seems less likely, tonight, and mentioned just a 3SM TEMPO from 08z-11z there. A frontal boundary is expected to shift south after 18z with showers and thunderstorms, especially near the international border. The feature will be slow to sag south, and so it may not reach KMPV or KRUT until near or after 00z. PROB30s for TSRA were noted then for KMSS, KSLK, KPBG, and KBTV. Outlook... Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Isolated TSRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. Chance TSRA, Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Hastings AVIATION...Haynes