FXUS61 KBTV 161824 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 224 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 221 PM EDT Friday... The wind advisory has been cancelled. Winds will remain gusty tonight and on Saturday but will remain below advisory threshold. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 221 PM EDT Friday... 1. Gusty winds to continue through Saturday with much cooler temperatures on the way. First round of snowfall expected for the high peaks tonight. 2. Next week continues to trend very quiet as high pressure builds in across the area with temperatures near normal and high confidence in an extended dry period of weather. && .DISCUSSION... As of 221 PM EDT Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1: We are currently in the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front with temperatures warming into the mid 50s to lower 60s. As of 1 PM, the approaching cold front was located in far western New York and will continue to quickly push east this afternoon and evening. A sharp thermal gradient will allow for temperatures to plummet quickly in the wake of the cold front with an abrupt wind direction shift from the south to the northwest. With increasing moisture in the warm sector, we should see rain showers continue into the evening ahead of the front but rainfall amounts don't look to be anything impressive at this time. As rainfall taper off in the wake of the cold front, the northwesterly flow regime will support upslope rain and/or snow showers across the western slopes of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. Our current thinking is that locations above 2000 ft may be able to accumulate up to an inch of snow while a few flurries could be seen as low as 1500 ft. Overall impacts will be minimal and likely confined to grassy surfaces as the ground temperature will remain above freezing through the period of possible snow. Saturday will be quite the transition to a more winter-like pattern as temperatures will struggle to climb into the 40s while winds remain gusty in the 20 to 30 mph range. This will lead to wind chills in the 20s and 30s throughout the day with wind chills as low as the single digits above and below zero across the high peaks. If you plan to be outdoors tomorrow please dress for the weather as this change in weather pattern may be surprising to many! Saturday night will be the coldest night as winds finally abate and skies clear with lows falling into the 20s to near 30 degrees with the warmest values in and around Lake Champlain. A rebound to more seasonal normal temperatures is expected for Sunday with highs warming into the 50s. KEY MESSAGE 2: A rex block will begin to develop for the Northeast as surface high pressure builds in from the west on Monday with a developing coastal low across the southeast. High pressure will keep any moisture well to our south through the extended period, with high confidence in an extended dry period. That said, some high clouds and cirrus clouds will be possible early next week, especially in southern Vermont. With the extended period of dry weather anticipated, and trees losing leaves, fire weather concerns may increase towards the latter portion of next week as we dry out from this weeks rains early next week. Winds look to be on the weak side with light and terrain driven flow under high pressure, which should be beneficial to lowering fire weather concerns. Temperatures will return to normal levels by early next week with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s, and overnight lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z Saturday...The first 6-8 hours will be the most complex period of this TAF period, with general improvements towards more stable and calm conditions by tomorrow. A cold front is slowly progressing from west to east with winds already at MSS from the west. Periods of high IFR to low MVFR will continue ahead of the front for terrain TAF sites, not including BTV/PBG, with TEMPO IFR groups for MPV for the next hour. As the boundary moves through each site between now and 00Z, ceilings may briefly reduce towards IFR with some intermittent IFR vis reductions, but conditions are expected to trend towards VFR thereafter. Have used TEMPO and PROB30 groups to denote where confidence is highest in terminal reductions associated with the boundary. SLK will likely see IFR cigs continue through 04Z before northwest flow helps scour out the low level clouds. Winds will also shift from the south to the west around 20-22Z with a general weakening of wind gusts during the wind shift. Lingering LLWS for all terminals will decrease with the passage of the front at each terminal. As winds become more west to northwest overnight tonight, mixing will continue with gusts returning to around 20-25 kts for most terminals, especially at BTV/PBG. Closer to sunrise tomorrow, some blocked flow will return to BTV with some MVFR cigs possible. Elsewhere scattered to broken ceilings 2500-3500ft agl will linger behind the cold front before trending VFR to 4000-5000ft agl by the end of the TAF period. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .MARINE... A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for much of Lake Champlain through Saturday afternoon. Although the strongest winds have ended, we will continue to see 15 to 30 knot winds across the lake through Saturday. Winds are from the south at the moment but will switch to the north after sunset following the passage of a cold front. Winds may briefly weaken below 25 knots as the wind shift occurs but winds are expected to ramp back up during the overnight hours. Wave have subsided to 2 to 4 feet and will likely subside further as the wind shift occurs but waves in the 2 to 4 ft range will likely develop again on Saturday with the persistent northerly winds. && .CLIMATE... Daily low maximum temperatures will likely be broken on Saturday. Current records at some climate sites in our region are as follows: Record Low Maximum Temperatures: October 17: KBTV: 42/1970 KPBG: 44/2015 KSLK: 36/1970 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Clay DISCUSSION...Danzig/Clay AVIATION...Danzig MARINE...Clay CLIMATE...NWS BTV