FXUS61 KBUF 072349 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 749 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Inserted low chance PoPs across portions of the North Country to account for lingering diurnally-driven showers. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A few leftover showers in the North Country early this evening, then additional widely scattered showers/storms possible across the Southern Tier Wednesday. 2) The next round of showers and scattered thunderstorms expected late Thursday through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A few leftover showers in the North Country early this evening, then additional widely scattered showers/storms possible across the Southern Tier Wednesday. Daytime heating/instability coupled with a lake breeze boundary triggered some spotty showers across the North Country during the late afternoon hours...some of which are still hanging on as of early this evening. These will gradually fade out this evening with the loss of heating and the collapse of the lake breeze boundary. Otherwise...dry weather is expected tonight through Thursday morning...with renewed daytime heating/instability and a developing lake breeze boundary to the lee of Lake Erie then potentially supporting some additional widely scattered showers and storms across the Southern Tier Wednesday afternoon/early evening. KEY MESSAGE 2...The next round of showers and scattered thunderstorms expected late Thursday through Friday. Mid-level trough and an associated weak cold front will pass across the central Great Lakes Thursday afternoon, where said cold front will eventually pass across the eastern Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday. Ahead of the feature, weak forcing will overspread the region, supporting a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms late Thursday afternoon. A southwest wind will support a stable lake shadow to expand northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario, and therefor keep these locations on the dry side. As the front makes it further east and eventually crosses the area, expect widespread showers and a few scattered thunderstorms to pass southeast across the area. Due to the timing of arrival of the front being past the peak diurnal heating, the severe potential will be kept to a minimum. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A few leftover spotty showers and brief/highly localized restrictions across the North Country early this evening should end by 02z-03z with the loss of heating. Otherwise...mainly clear skies and light winds will allow for good radiational cooling and narrowing dewpoint depressions tonight... leading to the development of LIFR/IFR valley fog across the Southern Tier (including at KJHW) and some patchier IFR/MVFR fog across the rest of western New York...with the latter most likely to affect the KIAG/KBUF terminals. Any fog that forms tonight will then mix out within a few hours after sunrise on Wednesday...leaving behind predominantly VFR conditions for the rest of the day. The one exception to this will be across the Southern Tier Wednesday afternoon...where increasing diurnal instability and a developing lake breeze boundary may lead to the development of some widely scattered showers/storms and attendant brief/localized restrictions. Outlook... Wednesday night...Patchy fog with local IFR, otherwise VFR. Thursday...Mainly VFR. Chance of a few showers and thunderstorms inland from the lakes in the afternoon. Thursday night through Friday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely at times. Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... A light to modest easterly to southeasterly flow will prevail across the Lower Great Lakes tonight. Light winds will then follow on Wednesday as a ridge of surface high pressure settles overhead. All in all, conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. An approaching cold front Thursday will cause southwest/west winds to increase...supporting the development of choppy conditions on both lakes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EAJ/JJR AVIATION...EAJ/JJR MARINE...EAJ/JJR