FXUS61 KBUF 081015
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
615 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mainly dry weather through the first half of Thursday with above 
average temperatures and rising humidity levels.

2) The next round of showers and scattered thunderstorms expected 
Thursday afternoon through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry weather through the first half of 
Thursday with above average temperatures and rising humidity levels.

The main impact for today and Thursday will be the return of above 
average temperatures and rising humidity levels. Highs will reach 
the mid to upper 80s both days across the lower elevations away from 
lake influences. Humidity will also creep upward, with heat indices 
in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most of the lower elevations, and 
possibly mid 90s for areas just south of Lake Ontario and the 
western Finger Lakes.

Otherwise, weak ridging will provide mainly dry weather across 
western and north-central NY through midday Thursday. The main 
exception will be across the western Southern Tier this afternoon 
where deeper moisture will combine with diurnal heating bringing the 
potential for some scattered showers/storms along an inland of a 
developing Lake Erie lake breeze boundary. This activity will move 
east through the afternoon, before dissipating this evening with the 
loss of daytime heating.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next round of showers and scattered 
thunderstorms expected Thursday afternoon through Friday.

Mid level trough and attendant weak cold front will press southeast 
into the central Great Lakes Thursday afternoon, with weak forcing 
and a modest uptick in deeper moisture starting to overspread the 
area ahead these features. While this will bring the possibility for 
a few widely scattered and storms, a more substantial southwest flow 
will develop ahead of the approaching cold front supporting a more 
expansive stable lake shadow northeast of Lake Erie and Lake 
Ontario, likely keeping locations northeast of the lakes dry. That 
said, hi-res CAMs now coming into view hinting at the possibility 
for an isolated more robust shower/storm along the Lake Erie/Lake 
Ontario lake breeze boundary just south of Lake Ontario, as well as 
along a Lake Ontario lake breeze toward the Saint Lawrence Valley. 

The best chance for widespread showers and a few storms will be 
Thursday night through Friday morning as the weak cold front slowly 
slides southeast across the region. A few showers and scattered 
storms may linger into Friday afternoon before the front finally 
presses further south of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A light E to ESE flow across PA continues to advect the western edge 
of better low level Atlantic flow into interior portions of the 
western Southern Tier (east of KJHW) early this morning. This has 
caused LIFR/VLIFR CIGS to overtop areas of valley fog (KELZ/KOLE) 
that formed overnight as seen on Nighttime Microphysics satellite 
imagery. Further west toward KJHW, periods of SCT to BKN low VFR 
CIGS have limited valley fog formation. Thus as we near daybreak, 
any flight reductions should be relatively short-lived as fog mixes 
out within a couple hours after sunrise.

Otherwise, predominantly VFR conditions will prevail today. The one 
exception to this will be across the Southern Tier/Finger Lakes 
region this afternoon, where increasing diurnal instability and a 
developing lake breeze boundary may lead to the development of some 
scattered showers/storms and attendant brief/localized restrictions.

Whatever convection that forms across the Southern Tier/Finger Lakes 
region this afternoon will then die out fairly quickly withthe loss 
of heating this evening. Outside of this dry/VFR conditions will 
largely prevail, save for some possible patchy valley fog and 
attendant MVFR/IFR across the Southern Tier again later tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday...Mainly VFR. Chance of a few showers and thunderstorms 
inland from the lakes in the afternoon.

Thursday night through Friday...VFR/MVFR with showers and 
thunderstorms likely at times.

Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will generally remain 10 knots or less through the end of the 
work week with conditions remaining well below SCA criteria.

The best chance for some light to possibly moderate chop at times 
will be Thursday afternoon into Thursday night ahead of and behind a 
weak passing cold front.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JM/JJR
MARINE...JM