FXUS61 KBUF 081721
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
121 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minimal updates made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Slightly above normal average temperature today and Thursday with 
rising humidity levels

2) Showers and thunderstorm expected Thursday afternoon through 
Friday, where a few thunderstorms may become severe (Marginal Risk 
for Severe Thunderstorms and Excessive Rainfall Thursday).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Slightly above normal temperatures today and 
Thursday with rising humidity levels

Surface high pressure centered across the Ohio Valley and through 
the eastern Great Lakes and into New England this afternoon will 
settle southeastward through the first half of Thursday. As such, 
warmer temperatures and higher humidity levels are advecting into 
the region, supporting highs today and Thursday to topple out in the 
low to mid 80s, with dewpoints climbing into the upper 60s to low 
70s. As such, it will feel rather warm and muggy with heat indices 
approaching the upper 80s across the higher terrain and low 90s in 
the lower elevations.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and thunderstorms expected Thursday 
afternoon through Friday, where a few thunderstorms may become 
severe (Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms and Excessive 
Rainfall Thursday).

A mid-level trough and attendant weak cold front will drop southeast 
into the central Great Lakes Thursday afternoon, advecting weak 
forcing and a deeper moisture source (PWAT values climbing up 
towards 1.5 to 1.75 inches) to overspread the region ahead of these 
features. This will likely support a few showers and thunderstorms 
to develop out ahead of the features, especially now with the timing 
of this feature being a few hours earlier in the day and better 
aligning with diurnal heating effects. The combination of the timing 
of peak diurnal instability, lake breeze boundaries northeast of the 
lakes, the weak additional forcing and moisture Thursday afternoon, 
will support a few storms to become strong to severe where damaging 
wind gusts and heavy rainfall are the primary threats. All of this 
being said, there is a Marginal Risk for both Severe Thunderstorms 
and Excessive Rainfall for much of northern portions of New York 
State Thursday.

The better chance for widespread showers and a few embedded 
thunderstorms will be Thursday night through Friday morning as the 
weak cold front gradually slide southeast across the region. A few 
showers and scattered storms may linger into Friday afternoon before 
the front pushes further south of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
For the 18Z TAFS an MVFR/IFR deck of stratus across the Southern 
Tier continues to fade this early afternoon. In its wake, an 
increase in modest daytime instability and lake breeze boundary 
formations will form a few showers and isolated thunder this 
afternoon, near KJHW and points inland through the Genesee Valley. 
To the north a northern Erie lake breeze circulation may produce an 
isolated shower between KBUF and KIAG, though confidence remains low 
at this time to include within the TAFs. 

Otherwise a narrow ridge of high pressure tonight will continue to 
fade as a cold front from the Central Great Lakes approaches. Within 
the light wind flow tonight Southern Tier valley fog will likely 
form, especially in any areas that received a shower from the 
afternoon/evening hours. Will place VCFG within the KJHW TAF with 
filling valley fog nearing the airfield.

The upstream cold front and associated convection will likely hold 
off until after the end of this TAF cycle, with storms blossoming in 
the 18Z-00Z timeframe near KBUF/KIAG as well as KART.  

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday...VFR/MVFR with showers and 
thunderstorms likely at times.

Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally light winds (10 knots or less) on the lakes through the 
rest of the week and into the weekend, supporting conditions to 
remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

The best chances for some light to a possible moderate chop at times 
will be Thursday afternoon into Thursday night ahead of and in the 
wake of a passing weak cold front.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EAJ
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...EAJ