FXUS61 KBUF 090653 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 253 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above normal temperatures and elevated humidity levels continue today. 2) Showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon through Friday, with a Marginal Risk for a few severe storms this afternoon and evening that may produce some gusty winds and heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures and elevated humidity levels continue today. Highs today will reach the mid to upper 80s across the lower elevations away from lake influences. When combined with elevated humidity levels, heat indices are expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s for most of the lower elevations, and possibly approaching the mid 90s for areas just south of Lake Ontario and the western Finger Lakes/lower Genesee Valley. KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon through Friday, with a Marginal Risk for a few severe storms this afternoon and evening that may produce some gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Mainly dry weather expected through midday or so before a weak/wavy cold frontal boundary approaches from the northwest bringing increasing chances for showers and scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening. The tightening pressure gradient will allow a more substantial southwest flow to develop ahead of the approaching cold front supporting a more expansive stable lake shadow northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, likely keeping locations northeast of the lakes mainly dry, at least through much of the afternoon hours. Otherwise, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop again later today along and inland of lake breeze circulations. Model guidance continues to advertise a faster approach of the cold front, which will allow the boundary to take advantage of diurnal heating. Deeper moisture will also pool ahead of the boundary with PWAT values rising to 1.5 to 1.8 inches. The best 0-6km shear will be toward the North Country/SL Valley with values near 30-35 knots, and trailing off with southward extent. Main limiting factors will be overall modest instability and poor lapse rates. However, the cold front will be able to take advantage of diurnal instability, and when combined with 30-35 knots of 0-6km shear, a few severe thunderstorms may develop capable of producing strong gusty winds for which SPC has a Marginal Risk for the bulk of our area. The best chance for a few gusty thunderstorms will be from the northern Niagara Frontier east and northeast toward far northern Jefferson County and the SL Valley closer to the cold front and higher shear values. The other main threat will be heavy rainfall with any thunderstorms that do develop for which WPC has a Marginal Risk in place. Best potential for isolated flooding will lie along the lake breeze convergence boundary just south of Lake Ontario where the highest risk for training storms exists. Later this evening and tonight, the cold front will move southeast across the area producing additional showers and scattered thunderstorms. Although the risk of severe weather will be low, heavy rainfall will still be a risk with any thunderstorms. Cold front will reside just south of the area Friday, bringing continued chances for a few showers and thunderstorms again Friday afternoon, with potential for heavy rainfall with any storms across the western Southern Tier. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will largely provide our region with fair dry VFR weather through sunrise...save for some valley fog and associated MVFR/IFR across portions of the Southern Tier. As wepush into the daylight hours any valley fog will quickly dissipate after sunrise with renewed diurnal heating/mixing...with dry/VFR conditions otherwise expected to continue through midday. An initial weak cold front will then slowly approach our region from the northwest this afternoon...with this and developing lake breeze boundaries interacting with modest diurnally-driven instability and leading to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms to the lee of the lakes. These will become possible first at KIAG/KJHW during the early to mid afternoon...then at KROC/KBUF/KART as we push through the late afternoon and very early evening hours. Brief/localized reductions to MVFR/IFR will be possible within these...with the greatest potential for any convection/restrictions found at KIAG. Tonight the initial cold front will slowly ease its way south across the area...while generating scattered to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. These may produce associated brief/ localized restrictions...with general VFR ceilings to start the night otherwise deteriorating to a mix of MVFR/IFR as a weak upslope northwesterly flow develops behind the cold front. Outlook... Friday...Additional showers and thunderstorms likely at times across interior sections with associated restrictions...otherwise a mix of MVFR/IFR ceilings improving to VFR/MVFR. Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... A brief period of 10-15 knot winds ahead of an approaching cold front may cause some light to low-end moderate chop on the lakes this afternoon into the early evening. Otherwise, mainly light winds and negligible waves are expected through the end of the work week. A few stronger thunderstorms will be possible on Lake Ontario later this afternoon into the early evening, capable of producing locally higher winds and waves. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...JJR MARINE...JM