FXUS61 KBUF 150555 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 155 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Periods of rain tonight through Friday, along with gusty winds. 2) Much colder Friday night through Saturday night with a few wet snowflakes possible early Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Periods of rain tonight through Friday, along with gusty winds. Low stratus will persist this morning across most of the region with a shallow layer of moisture trapped beneath the inversion in low level northeast flow. The stratus deck will quickly shrink in coverage later this morning through early afternoon, with a brief period of sunshine before mid/high clouds increase ahead of the next system late today. Stream phasing is underway across the mid-section of the nation, with the resulting sharp mid level trough advancing east into the Great Lakes tonight through Friday. Surface low pressure will organize over the Midwest today, then move to southern Ontario province by Friday morning before reaching the Saint Lawrence Valley by Friday afternoon. Model consensus has converged on a solution tracking the surface low just north of the area, allowing the warm sector to briefly build into the lower Great Lakes. A period of strong warm advection and moisture transport, enhanced by a 50-60 knot low level jet, will arrive overnight and support an initial wave of rainfall. This rain will arrive in Western NY by around midnight, then rapidly spread northeast overnight. Additional periods of rain will continue Friday through Friday evening as the trailing cold front moves southeast across the region, supported by mid level height falls and right entrance region jet dynamics. Marginal instability in the warm sector may support a few embedded thunderstorms as well late tonight through Friday. Rainfall amounts will vary widely across the area, generally ranging from 0.25" to 1.0". Terrain will play an important role given the strong boundary layer flow, with downslope areas of the Lake Erie shore and Genesee Valley likely on the low end of the range, while higher terrain is more likely to be on the higher end of the range from upslope enhancement. There may be a few small areas that exceed 1.0" if embedded convection develops. It will become quite windy late tonight through Friday. A 50-60 knot low level jet will propagate across the eastern Great Lakes late tonight through Friday morning. Gusts will increase into the 25-35 mph range areawide, with gusts possibly reaching or exceeding 40 mph in downslope areas along the Lake Erie shore and north of the Tug Hill Plateau briefly. Boundary layer flow will quickly swing around to the southwest Friday morning through mid afternoon, with gusts still in the 25-35 mph range in most areas, and up to 40 mph northeast of Lake Erie across the Niagara Frontier. KEY MESSAGE 2...Much colder Friday night through Saturday night with a few wet snowflakes possible early Saturday morning. Strong cold advection will develop Friday night in the wake of the departing low, with 850MB temps dropping into the -5C to -8C range by Saturday morning. The cold air aloft will support increasing lake induced instability overnight with a brief lake response, but short NNW fetch and a rapidly drying synoptic scale airmass will keep lake effect muted and brief. Lake effect and upslope rain showers will develop southeast of the lakes Friday night, with a few wet snowflakes possibly mixing in very late Friday night through early Saturday morning before the lake effect showers quickly end by late morning. The best chance of a few snowflakes will be across higher terrain, but no accumulation is expected. The coldest airmass of the fall season so far will arrive for Saturday, with highs only in the 40s areawide, and even upper 30s across the highest terrain despite some afternoon sunshine. Temperatures will drop back into the low to mid 30s Saturday night on the lake plains, with some 20s likely across the Southern Tier valleys and North Country. The cold air will quickly depart, with temperatures back above average by early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Widespread low stratus with MVFR CIGS will persist through mid morning with a shallow layer of low level moisture trapped beneath the inversion in low level northeast flow. The stratus layer will quickly shrink in coverage late morning through early afternoon with a return to VFR. Mid/high clouds will then thicken and lower late this afternoon through this evening ahead of the next system. Low pressure will organize over the Midwest today, then track across southern lower Michigan to southern Ontario province by Friday morning. Rain will overspread the area from southwest to northeast overnight, with CIGS deteriorating to MVFR/IFR a few hours after the rain begins as low levels saturate. A 50-60 knot low level jet will move into the eastern Great Lakes late tonight through Friday morning in the developing warm sector of the system. This low level jet will bring a brief period of low level wind shear overnight as it arrives, followed by increasing surface wind gusts late tonight through Friday. Expect gusts of 20- 30 knots areawide, and up to 35 knots near Lake Erie by late tonight. Outlook... Friday...MVFR/IFR with periods of rain. Windy. Saturday...Areas of MVFR CIGS with scattered rain/wet snow showers early, improving to VFR. Sunday through Monday...VFR. && .MARINE... Northeast winds around 15 knots will continue to produce choppy conditions on both lakes today, but winds and waves will remain just below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Low pressure will organize over the Midwest today, then track across southern lower Michigan tonight, reaching southern Ontario province Friday morning. This low will continue to deepen as it moves northeast across the Saint Lawrence Valley Friday, reaching the Canadian Maritimes by Saturday. Southerly winds will increase overnight ahead of the system, then quickly veer to the southwest and west Friday as the low passes by just north of the lower Great Lakes, followed by gusty north-northwest winds Friday night through Saturday morning. Sustained winds during this timeframe will average 20-30 knots, producing high end Small Craft Advisory conditions on both lakes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hitchcock AVIATION...Hitchcock MARINE...Hitchcock