FXUS61 KBUF 191100 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 700 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Summer-like heat continues today. 2) Widespread showers and thunderstorms arrive very late today into tonight, with a few storms having the potential to reach severe limits (Slight Risk for Severe Weather continues for late today and tonight). 3) Drier, but much cooler conditions arrive in the wake of the cold front for the middle and later half of the work week, before the potential for unsettled weather returns for the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Summer-like heat continues today. Mid and upper level heights will start to fall today as the mid and upper level ridge axis slides east of the area. NBM max temperature output continues to be too warm. Looking at Monday's high temperatures, NBM forecast highs averaged 3-5 degrees F too warm. NBM again looks too warm today. In fact, NBM high temperature output is right near the top of the chart, nearing the 90th percentile amongst all other guidance. With that in mind and in coordination with surrounding offices as has been done over the past several days, daytime highs were lowered a couple to few degrees again today. Highs are expected to top out mainly in the mid and upper 80s, with a run at 90 again for those traditionally warmer locations, while it will remain a bit cooler along and closer to the lakeshores. Winds will continue to ramp up through the day with gusts 20-30 mph areawide this afternoon and up to 35 mph, or even a few gusts to 40 mph northeast of Lake Erie, especially a bit further from the lake away from the cool dome over and closer to the lakeshore. A few mainly light showers will cross the area this morning. Additional scattered showers and storms will then be possible during the peak heating hours this afternoon, and would mainly be confined to areas along and inland of any lake breeze circulations. Some gusty winds are possible with a stronger storm or two, however overall severe potential through this afternoon remains low. KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread showers and thunderstorms arrive very late today into tonight, with a few storms having the potential to reach severe limits (Slight Risk for Severe Weather continues for late today and tonight). Confidence for a few strong to severe storms continues to moderate for late today through the early overnight hours just ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the west. CAPE values of 1000- 2000 J/kg (especially earlier in the evening) with 25-35 knots of 0- 6km shear will foster the potential for damaging wind gusts, which will be the greatest threat. Local BUFKIT soundings continue to advertise "fat" CAPE profiles, which supports stronger updraft potential, indicating the possibility for large hail as well. Finally, 0-3km SRH values of 200-300 m^2/s^2 (300-400 m^2/s^2 far western NY) support the chance for an isolated tornado or two. SPC has all of western and northcentral NY outlined in a Slight Risk for scattered severe storms during this period. The best window for severe storms will be 6-7 PM this evening through 1-2 AM tonight. With that timing comes the gradual loss of diurnal heating heading through the evening. This leads to some uncertainty as to whether or not the line can maintain its' intensity, especially by later in the evening. Current thinking is the line will maintain intensity as it nears or enters far western NY early this evening, then gradually weakens as it heads further east into our area as heating wanes. KEY MESSAGE 3...Drier, but much cooler conditions arrive in the wake of the cold front for the middle and later half of the work week, before thepotential for unsettled weather returns for the holiday weekend. A large area of high pressure will build into our region in the wake of the cold frontal passage, bringing a mainly dry, but much cooler airmass back in across the area for the middle and later half of the week. Coolest day will be Thursday, with many locations not getting out of the 50s. Expect a slow rebound in temperatures into the holiday weekend with mainly 60s across the area, however an area of low pressure approaching from the southwest may bring unsettled weather back into our region for at least a portion of this weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR flight conditions are found this morning, and these conditions will be predominate through most of today, although a few VFR showers will be around this morning. A few afternoon instability showers and storms will also be possible along and inland of lake breeze circulations. A consistent flow of 35 to 45 knots off the deck will bring gusty winds later this morning through the afternoon as diurnal mixing commences, especially northeast of the Lakes where gusts may reach 30 to 35 knots. The main concern during this TAF period will come tonight. A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move into far western NY around early this this evening ahead of a strong cold front, then trek east while slowly weakening through around 06Z. A few storms will have the potential to produce strong winds and large hail. Expect localized LIFR/IFR flight reductions within any of the stronger storms. In the wake of the cold front, expect widespread IFR/MVFR CIGS to develop for the second half of tonight. Outlook... Wednesday...Lingering IFR/MVFR improving to VFR. Thursday through Friday...VFR. Saturday...Potential for sub-VFR with as a low pressure system brings rain to the region. && .MARINE... Pressure gradient will continue to tighten across the lower Great Lake region today ahead of a strong cold front. Light to gentle breezes this morning will increase to moderate later this morning into the afternoon bringing a light to moderate chop on both lakes. However, a freshening breeze will develop across western Lake Ontario, where a Small Craft Advisory criteria has been issued from late this morning through the early overnight. In addition, a line of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead the cold front bringing the possibility for locally higher winds and waves early this evening into the overnight with any stronger storm, with the potential for large hail as well. Winds will then veer west behind the cold front late tonight, then freshen through Wednesday morning on eastern Lake Ontario, where another round of Small Craft Advisories will be possible by later Wednesday morning through a portion of Wednesday night. High pressure will then build across the lower Great Lakes region bringing lessening winds and lowering waves later Wednesday night through Thursday night. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LOZ042. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM