FXUS65 KBYZ 071940 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 140 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers today and Wednesday. A few thunderstorms may become strong to severe at times with hail, strong winds, and heavy rain being the main threats. The risk of severe thunderstorms is greatest today. - Trending drier Thursday, though a chance of showers and thunderstorms remains over eastern Montana (medium chance). - Very hot conditions this weekend into Monday. High temperatures in the low to mid 100s with overnight low temperatures in the 60s to 70s will increase the risk of heat related impacts. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday... Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop and move east through the area this afternoon and evening. With modest instability and wind shear, a few thunderstorms could become strong to severe over south- eastern Montana and north- eastern Wyoming with wind, hail, and heavy rain being the main threats. Currently, the risk of severe is greatest between 2PM and 11PM MDT. The one thing to watch is modeled atmospheric soundings suggest a mid- level cap may limit the extent of convection today. This is reflected in the latest High- Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model runs. Will have to see how the atmosphere recovers over eastern Montana after this morning's showers and thunderstorms. So far, a good amount of convective inhibition remains, but as temperatures warm, this will decrease. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast once again Wednesday afternoon and evening, however, this activity is expected to remain over and near the mountains and foothills initially with little forcing mechanism outside of orographics. By the evening, an approaching shortwave trough looks to develop additions showers and thunderstorms over south-central Montana that move east over the plains, gradually decreasing as they move east into the night. While good instability will favor a few strong to severe thunderstorms over portions of southern Montana and northern Wyoming, limited shear may inhibit thunderstorm organization causing them to be more short-lived. A bit drier air near the surface may also favor strong winds as the main threat, though hail and heavy rain remain possible with any thunderstorm that develops. Thursday looks to be a mostly dry day as the air mass dries out even more. With that said, a few diurnal showers and thunderstorms are possible over eastern Montana (medium chance). Friday into early next week, the focus turns to the very hot conditions that are forecast to develop over the region. Currently, high temperatures on Friday are in the upper 80s to 90s before high temperatures warm into the upper 90s to mid 100s Saturday and Sunday. Monday looks to be a bit "cooler" with high temperatures in the 90s to lower 100s. In addition to these hot daytime temperatures, overnight low temperatures are expected to remain in the 60s to 70s this weekend into early next week. This will provide little relief from the heat, especially for those without access to air conditioning. The one thing to watch is what happens with wildfire smoke. Should smoke aloft be transported into the region, this may keep daytime temperatures down a bit. However, hot conditions are expected either way, so plan now to protect yourself from the heat. With the heat, a few all-time record high temperatures may be challenged this weekend. Below are the current all- time record high temperatures at each of our climate stations: Billings 108F Livingston 105F Miles City 111F Sheridan 107F Baker 109F Next week looks to remain hot, but there are signals that monsoonal moisture and energy will return by the middle part of the week, re-introducing at least a slight chance of precipitation to portions of the area. LA .AVIATION... 18z Discussion...Expect isolated to scattered thunderstorm development to commence around 20z over the eastern half of the higher terrain this afternoon. Storms will move eastward and exit the area by 05z. A few strong to severe storms are forecast with large hail and gusts to 60kts possible. Locally heavy rainfall may produce brief MVFR/IFR conditions near precipitation areas. Prob30 groups are in the TAFs for KBIL/KSHR/KMLS with hail mentioned for KMLS. Left hail mention out of KSHR for now as storms are forecast to intensify just east of that terminal. VFR conditions will prevail after 06z through Wednesday morning. Chambers && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 060/091 062/091 063/096 066/103 070/106 072/098 071/094 22/T 20/U 00/U 00/G 00/G 00/U 11/U LVM 054/089 054/089 055/095 058/098 061/101 064/095 062/090 12/T 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/G 01/U 13/T HDN 059/091 060/091 061/097 063/104 067/107 070/100 069/096 32/U 21/U 10/U 00/G 00/G 00/U 12/W MLS 057/087 061/090 061/097 067/103 071/106 074/101 071/096 41/U 21/U 00/U 00/G 00/G 10/G 11/U 4BQ 060/089 061/090 061/096 067/103 071/106 074/101 070/096 42/U 22/T 20/U 10/G 00/G 00/G 11/U BHK 052/083 057/089 057/093 062/101 066/103 068/100 065/094 40/B 12/T 10/U 10/G 00/G 00/U 01/U SHR 056/087 056/088 056/095 061/101 064/106 069/099 067/095 44/T 33/T 10/U 00/G 00/G 00/U 13/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings