FXUS65 KBYZ 080716 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 116 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A few storms could be severe and produce hail, strong winds, and heavy rain. - Trending drier Thursday; a chance of thunderstorms over the east and south. - Very hot this weekend into early next week. High temperatures will exceed 100 degrees most locations over the weekend, and temps on Sunday may challenge all-time records. Protect yourself from the heat! && .DISCUSSION... Through next Tuesday... Scattered thunderstorms with very heavy rain near Sheridan and across far southeast MT should end by 09z early this morning. Satellite imagery shows an area of low clouds over northeast MT. As skies in our area clear out there could be some low clouds and/or localized fog develop before sunrise (the boundary layer remains quite moist). Fog is not a common occurrence in mid-July. Next weak shortwave along the Pacific coast will move eastward and help to produce another round of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Though the air mass will begin to trend drier, pwats remain above normal today. Expect temps in the upper 80s and lower 90s to be warm enough to prevent capping, as was a limiting issue for Tuesday's convection. Shear is marginal but appears strong enough to support a few strong to severe storms. HREF shows most potent helicity tracks over southern Big Horn and Sheridan Counties so this may be the area to watch. Greatest potential for t-storms overall seems to be over our south this afternoon, but by evening a trailing PV max arrives from the west and helps to produce showers and weak t-storms in the evening. Air mass dries further Thursday and convection will be more isolated and should be limited to the south and east. Temps Thursday will be comparable to today, i.e. seasonable. Heights begin to build Friday as a trof deepens along the Pacific coast, and temps will respond accordingly (highs in the 90s). Though there remains uncertainty, area of PV lifting out of the northern great basin may yield isolated high-based weak t-storms mainly over the mountains and foothills late in the day. Anomalously strong upper level high building the intermountain west will bring very hot weather this weekend. Triple digit heat is a certainty with this air mass. Heights are expected to build to near 600dam, and deterministic models continue to show 700mb temps rising to near +18C Saturday and +20C (or a bit warmer) Sunday. Typical July mixing would result in highs in the 105-110F range on Sunday, which means we are talking about potential all- time records (listed below). There are potential flies in the ointment, including the question of lofted smoke from fires to our south, and the effects of boundary layer moisture from recent rains. All told, the combination of triple digit heat and increasingly warm nighttime temperatures (60s & 70s) will significantly elevate heat risk concerns. Please plan accordingly. Well above normal temps continue next Monday & Tuesday but ensemble consensus is for slight cooling, for a couple of possible reasons. There may be weak shortwave energy in southern Canada that flattens the ridge and introduces NE winds, but more likely there will be an increase in monsoon moisture as the ridge becomes centered to our southeast. The possibility of high-based convection w/lightning at some point early next week will be problematic with regard to fire potential, as the fine fuels will be baked this weekend with the heat and sub-10% humidities. Below are the all-time record high temperatures at each of our climate stations: Billings 108F Livingston 105F Miles City 111F Sheridan 107F Baker109F JKL .AVIATION... Patchy fog east of Billings is expected to burn off by around 15z. Precipitation chances (20-50%) enter after 18z today with the best chances being south of Billings. Isolated severe storms are expected with strong wind gusts, hail, and heavy rain being the main threats. MVFR conditions are possible with these storms due to heavy rain decreasing visibility. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger north of Billings until around 12Z Thursday. Torgerson && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 092 063/091 064/096 066/103 070/108 073/099 071/094 2/T 10/U 01/U 10/G 00/G 00/U 11/U LVM 090 055/090 055/093 057/102 061/103 064/096 062/092 1/U 21/U 01/U 20/G 00/G 00/U 23/T HDN 092 061/092 060/097 064/103 068/109 071/101 070/096 2/T 10/U 10/U 10/G 00/G 00/G 11/B MLS 087 062/092 062/097 067/102 071/109 075/101 070/095 1/U 21/U 00/U 10/G 00/G 10/G 11/U 4BQ 089 062/091 061/096 067/103 071/107 075/102 070/096 2/T 23/T 31/U 10/G 00/G 00/G 11/U BHK 084 057/089 057/093 063/101 066/106 070/100 065/093 0/U 02/T 20/U 10/G 00/G 00/U 01/B SHR 088 057/089 057/095 061/103 066/107 069/099 067/094 5/T 22/T 21/U 10/G 00/N 00/U 13/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings