FXUS62 KCAE 200044 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 844 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A cold air damming setup may bring cooler temperatures than previously forecast to northern portions of the forecast area on Friday and possibly Saturday. Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAF. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Above normal temperatures likely into this weekend. - 2. Rain chances increase late week onward. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Above normal temperatures likely into this weekend. The only significant change to the temperatures this week is that it is looking increasingly likely that high pressure in the Northeast will push a CAD/wedge boundary down into the Mid- Atlantic States and possibly into the northern forecast area for Friday. That could bring temperatures down cooler than previously expected, at least for the northern FA. If the wedge boundary does linger around for longer than models show (as typical) then we could see those cooler temps stick around for Saturday. So the current temperature forecast for the northern FA this Saturday is uncertain. Other than that expect, above normal temperatures but lower than any Heat WWA thresholds. Key Message 2: Rain chances increase late week onward. A slight shift eastward in ridging is expected late this week. This should lead to increased moisture over the Southeast from Thursday through Memorial Day as stronger southerly flow develops. There remains a large spread in atmospheric moisture between the Euro and other global ensembles. EC mean PWAT values are projected to be in the 97.5 to 99th percentile for much of the long holiday weekend, while the NAEFS keep the deepest moisture further north and west with stronger ridging. IVT remains near climatological normal through the period in both cases. The most agreement for deeper moisture between all ensembles seems to be late Friday and Saturday as a wedge boundary drops into the Mid-Atlantic States and possibly into the northern forecast area. This looks to be the highest chance of rain in the extended with the main focus to the north closer to the front. However with limited moisture transport and at least weak ridging QPF amounts should be light, generally around or less than 0.25 inches from Fri to Sat. On average, heights increase through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week indicating some potential for convective suppression despite PWAT values remaining slightly above normal. Blended model guidance has been consistently aggressive despite shallower moisture and a set up more indicative of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The wind field remains weak from late week to early next week so the potential for anything more than an isolated downburst is low. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions expected to continue overnight before another round of stratus and/or fog will be possible early Wednesday morning. Little change in air mass and skies have cleared once again this evening except for some cirrus clouds. Continued abundant low level moisture in place will keep the possibility of brief predawn fog/stratus. OGB is most favored for restrictions as much of the guidance is highlighting the Coastal Plain and eastern Midlands for fog/stratus development. Lower confidence moving westward so have included no restrictions at CAE/CUB and limited IFR/LIFR restrictions in a tempo group at AGS/DNL/OGB/AIK with prevailing MVFR vsbys at prone AGS/OGB after 08z-09z. Any restrictions should clear by 13-15z, giving way to mostly clear skies and light winds out of the south. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increased moisture may result in brief restrictions at the terminals due to low clouds and/or fog each day this week. Rain chances increase Thursday and into this weekend. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CJR AVIATION...23