FXUS61 KCAR 162331
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
731 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
730 pm update...Update for 00z aviation discussion.

- Confidence increased in temperatures and showers.

- Added patchy fog into the forecast for this evening and
  tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A strong system tonight through Saturday is expected to 
bring widespread rain with some snow over the north tonight and 
strong winds tonight into Saturday.

2) Generally dry weather Sunday through late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong system tonight through Saturday is 
expected to bring widespread rain with some snow over the north 
tonight and strong winds tonight into Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
The low pressure system is centered to the west over Quebec and
will continue to track ENE. As of this update the warm front 
has stretched over the St John Valley, which has brought temp 
above freezing across the region. The next round of rain ahead 
of the approaching cold front will continue to move from W to E 
through the rest of the afternoon. For tonight, the temps will 
continue to warm, keeping all remaining precip as rain. After 
sunset, but before midnight, the cold front will move through 
the region, gradually dropping temps into the 30s as NW winds 
increase. For Saturday, the remaining shortwave energy behind 
the front should create some showers in the north. Any showers 
on the back side of the cold front will be in the form of 
isolated snow showers in the North Woods.

In addition, the approaching high pressure behind the exiting
low will tighten pressure gradients on Saturday. Winds gust are
expected to reach up to 35 mph, creating possible isolated power
outages.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Generally dry weather Sunday through late next
week.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
High pressure will generally control the weather Sunday through
late next week. Several frontal passages will occur during that
time. However, with only limited moisture available expect that
the frontal passages will generally be dry.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Tonight...IFR/LIFR conditions early, then becoming MVFR cigs 
after the rain ends around 02z at all terminals with the
exception of FVE which improves by 04z. Improvement to VFR after
midnight for Downeast terminals, and between 07-09z Aroostook
terminals. Lingering LLWS for another or two at all terminals. WNW
winds 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts.

Saturday-Sat night...VFR. NW winds 10-20 kts with gusts up to 35
kts Saturday. Then WNW winds around 5 kts Sat night.
                                                    
Sunday through Wednesday...Variable conditions in any patchy 
overnight fog. Otherwise, VFR. Southwest/south winds 5 to 10
knots Sunday. South winds 5 to 10 knots Sunday night. South
winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Monday.
Variable winds 5 to 10 knots Monday night. North winds 10 to 15
knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Tuesday, then 5 to 10
knots Tuesday night. North/northeast winds 10 to 15 knots 
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory continues through Sat night. Winds will
reach up to 25 kts and waves will reach 4-8 ft.

Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Sunday through 
Monday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Saturday night for 
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ARL/CN
AVIATION...21/ARL/CN