FXUS61 KCLE 080512 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 112 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...06z TAF Aviation Forecast Update... .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the previous forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across the eastern half of the area into this evening. No significant impacts are expected. 2) The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be late Thursday into Friday as a cold front moves across the region. Heavy rain is possible. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The latest satellite and surface observations reveal a weak surface trough lingering across the eastern half of the area this afternoon. Although some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible into this evening, especially near the OH/PA border, the overall intensity and coverage of the precipitation will be limited compared to the previous couple of days, given a lack of forcing and increased mid-level dry air. Thus, not anticipating any significant impacts with the rain, other than a few brief heavy downpours. The weak surface trough appears to linger into Wednesday, albeit a bit further east, limiting rain chances to mainly NW PA or along the OH/PA border in the afternoon. As was the case over the past several nights, weak flow and a moist ground will result in patchy to areas of fog tonight into Wednesday morning, particularly inland across North-Central and Northeast Ohio. KEY MESSAGE 2... Attention then turns towards the next low pressure system and cold front Thursday into Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will be approaching from the north along and ahead of the cold front Thursday night, but also from the west Friday morning as a shortwave tracks east along the front into the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley region. Will continue to monitor timing and location trends for this shortwave. Though we can't rule out a stronger storm or two with this system, heavy rain and isolated flooding still appears to be the primary concern with PWATs approaching or exceeding 1.80 inches. && .AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... The main aviation weather concern for this 06z TAF update will be some patchy to areas of fog possible through sunrise across NEOH and NWPA. For FDY, TOL, ERI, and CLE, MVFR light fog 3sm to 5sm will be possible between 09z and 13z this morning. The better chance for MVFR fog will be at MFD, CAK, and YNG between 08z and 13z with also the potential for a brief period of IFR 2sm fog and broken ceilings around 700 feet. We have TEMPO groups mentioning this potential. After sunrise, the patchy fog and any low stratus ceilings will quickly lift out to VFR conditions with mostly clear skies after 14z this morning. VFR is expected for the rest of the TAF period later today into this evening. Winds will be light and variable through this morning before becoming northwesterly to northerly 5-10 knots through the rest of today. Light and variable winds return again this evening. Outlook...Non-VFR possible with scattered thunderstorms Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE... Overall good marine conditions are expected today and tomorrow with winds around 10 knots or less and waves 1 foot. High pressure will keep the weather quiet over the eastern Great Lakes. A light land and lake breeze will be possible early this morning and later this afternoon. Southwesterly winds around 10 knots are expected Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will be with slow to pass through. Winds will eventually shift out of the north by late Friday. Next potential thunderstorms that could impact localized marine conditions is Thursday evening into Friday. High pressure will build back over Lake Erie this weekend with northeasterly flow 10 to 15 knots on Saturday and waves 1 to 3 feet. NW winds 5 to 10 knots expected Sunday and waves 1 to 2 feet. Marine headlines are not expected for Lake Erie through this weekend. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kahn AVIATION...77 MARINE...77