FXUS61 KCLE 090604 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 204 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The forecast remains generally on track. The Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms has been expanded to include the eastern lakeshore areas and includes more of Northwest Ohio. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms return to the local area Thursday night and Friday. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Northwest Ohio and extending east along the lakeshore Thursday evening/night. 2) Conditions dry out over the weekend with temperatures trending above normal early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a trough moving northeast through the Ohio Valley with moisture spreading north ahead of it. Meanwhile, a northern stream trough is moving into the Upper Midwest and will cross Lake Erie Thursday evening/night. The airmass remains very dry this afternoon with surface high pressure in place but the high is expected to weaken on Thursday as a cold front approaches from the north. Most of the day on Thursday will be dry but can not rule out an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm along the lake breeze in Northeast Ohio/Northwest Pennsylvania. Otherwise a chance for showers and thunderstorms will be possible in Northwest Ohio by late afternoon with coverage increasing Thursday night as the front approaches. ML CAPE values are forecast to reach 1500-2000 J/kg in NW Ohio along with shear increasing Thursday evening as the shortwave trough passes aloft. The Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather has been expanded slightly to include more of Northwest Ohio and now extends eastward along the lakeshore which seems reasonable. The primary concern will be wind gusts of 50-60 mph with thunderstorms Thursday evening. Moisture advection will continue on Thursday night with PW values increasing to over 2 inches. Will continue with high pops for Thursday night as multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible. Will need to monitor for pockets of locally heavy rainfall with training of storms possible with the mean flow set up nearly parallel to the storm motion. On Friday another shortwave will track through the Ohio Valley. Instability may be kept to modest values with higher cloud cover expected. Still expecting continued shower and thunderstorm activity on Friday as the surface front is slow to clear the area. KEY MESSAGE 2... While a few showers may linger across the south on Saturday, the trend will be for drier conditions to develop over the weekend with high pressure building to the north. Low pops remain across the south into Saturday followed by a mostly dry forecast through the extended. While temperatures will be near normal over the weekend, a strong upper level ridge tries to expand east into the Great Lakes early next week. Temperatures are forecast to surpass 90 degrees in portions of the area but will depend on the our proximity to the ridge. There is a larger spread in ensemble temperatures next week based on if the ridge is overhead or if we are on the downstream side of it. Will be monitoring the overall pattern evolution over the coming days. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... VFR conditions are largely expected through most of the TAF period with mid to upper-level clouds streaming across the area, and conditions too dry for fog this morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to move in from the northwest Thursday evening and overnight, though low coverage of storms and uncertainty in timing will limit the inclusion of TSRA or non-VFR conditions in most TAFs. Best confidence is at KTOL where most models have convection moving in during the afternoon, when peak heating will contribute to the best chance of seeing lighting (though still relatively low so only included a PROB30). Outlook...Non-VFR possible with scattered thunderstorms through Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE... Quiet marine conditions expected as weak high pressure lingers over the area this morning. Southwest winds around 5-10 knots become west during the day with waves generally 2 feet or less. A cold front will sag south across Lake Erie tonight into Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop near the western basin late this afternoon before coverage increases across the lake tonight. There is a low chance of thunderstorms producing locally gusty winds and briefly higher wave heights. Winds will turn west to northwest behind the front Friday, then northeast this weekend as high pressure builds north of the lake. Wave should remain 2 feet or less through Friday, with 1 to 3 feet possible in the western basin this weekend. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...10 AVIATION...Saunders MARINE...Saunders