FXUS61 KCLE 091736 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 136 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. The potential for rain on Saturday across our southern counties has trended slightly higher. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Occasional showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area late today through Friday. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated damaging winds across Northwest Ohio, Lake Erie, and the eastern lakeshore late today into tonight. Some thunderstorms can also produce heavy rain through Friday. 2) Rain chances may linger into Saturday before a drying trend this weekend into early next week. Temperatures trend above average early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight and gradually sag across the area Friday afternoon and evening. Aloft, a shortwave is tracking across the upper Ohio Valley this morning. A northern stream shortwave tracks across the southern Great Lakes this afternoon and evening. Another weak shortwave will track through the Ohio Valley tonight into Friday morning. The combination of the front, shortwaves, and the return of a moist and unstable airmass will allow for occasional opportunities for showers and storms through Friday. We will largely start dry today, but may have a couple of showers from eastern OH into northwestern PA early in proximity to the Ohio Valley shortwave. Will then turn attention to extreme Northeast OH/Northwest PA early to mid-afternoon, when a lake breeze pushes inland and potentially sparks isolated to widely scattered showers/storms. Otherwise, greater rain potential waits until closer to this evening. Storms are still favored to develop in closer proximity to the front across parts of southern MI, northern IN, and far Northwest OH by late this afternoon as we reach peak heating and as a shortwave begins tracking across the southern Great Lakes. This activity will try spreading east-southeast into the area through this evening, though there is not great agreement on how far this activity can progress as it outruns the front and greatest instability. Suspect that if activity is able to organize into a cluster that it should spread at least as far east-southeast as the I-71 corridor through the evening if not a bit farther, though models show considerable disagreement on that. After perhaps a lull following the evening convection, another uptick is favored overnight as the next shortwave moves into the Ohio Valley and as the front continues slowly approaching. This uptick in showers and storms may linger into Friday morning, especially from eastern OH into PA. We'll likely see activity exit east with the shortwave Friday morning, but with the front still sagging through the area and a humid airmass in place am expecting at least scattered re-development along and ahead of the front by early afternoon, with activity continuing through the afternoon before exiting south or weakening Friday night. The SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather in the form of damaging winds across Northwest OH, Lake Erie, and the adjacent eastern lakeshore for this afternoon and evening. MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/KG (with a tall/skinny CAPE profile) and 20-25kt of bulk shear may support loosely organized convection, with strong heating and well-mixed low- levels suggesting potential for cold pool development and organization with any clusters of storms...this can support the isolated damaging wind threat. Severe weather is unlikely on Friday due to weaker heating and minimal shear. Otherwise, the other concern is potential for locally heavy rain as precipitable waters climb to 1.75-2.00" tonight into Friday. This amount of moisture, combined with skinny instability profiles and high freezing levels, can support very efficient rain rates within convection tonight and Friday. The main concern may be overnight tonight into Friday morning when there is some signal for training convection along or just ahead of the sagging front. With plenty of disagreement on the overall evolution of convection on hi-res models, it's hard to be too confident if or where any heavy rain and potential for localized flash flooding would play out. Still, some potential is evident and the WPC has the area highlighted in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall/flash flooding for tonight and Friday. Highs will reach the mid to upper 80s today before scaling back a few degrees into the low to mid 80s on Friday. Overnight lows tonight will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Dew points will climb into the upper 60s to near 70 tonight and Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2... A shortwave and low pressure will dive through the Ohio Valley Saturday into Saturday night. The front will stall close to our southern counties late tonight and Saturday, and the overall setup has trended a bit farther north in recent model runs. Potential for at least some showers is enough to warrant a 20-40% forecast mention across our south on Saturday. Also have a small shower mention along parts of the western lakeshore late Friday night into Saturday, as some models suggest enough moisture for a few lake-enhanced sprinkles or showers in the ENE flow. The forecast trends drier Saturday night into Sunday, though it's worth noting that some models hint at a few isolated showers on Sunday owing to high pressure building in slower than expected and low pressure still drifting through the Ohio Valley...one small thing to monitor. High pressure does finally build in more firmly by Sunday night and lingers through the first half of the week, providing for a prolonged stretch of mainly dry weather. Temperatures are expected to warm above normal for the first half of next week, potentially into the 90s for highs, especially across Northwest Ohio. There remains a fair amount of ensemble spread regarding how quickly ridging over the central U.S. expands east next week, which will have influence on our temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/... Widespread VFR conditions are being observed across the area this afternoon as SCT diurnal cu have developed over most terminals. Upstream convection has begun to develop and is expected to move east through this evening into the overnight hours. Overall extent of convection is expected to remain scattered, making it difficult to pinpoint a potential arrival time of storms at terminals. KTOL would be the first impacted this afternoon with at least VCTS expected. If showers do impact terminals, conditions may briefing diminish to MVFR visibilities. On Friday, showers and storms are expected to stick around as a weak low pressure system moves into the area. Additional non-VFR conditions are possible with these additional showers, however overall confidence in timing remains low. Opted to handle all convection and showers with TEMPO or PROB30. Winds from the west-southwest this afternoon at 5-12 knots may occasionally gust up to 20 knots, especially across far western terminals. After sunset, winds will become light and variable before gradually transitioning to a more northerly flow on Friday afternoon. Outlook...Non-VFR possible with scattered thunderstorms through Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE... Quiet marine conditions expected as weak high pressure lingers over the area this morning. Southwest winds around 5-10 knots become west during the day with waves generally 2 feet or less. A cold front will sag south across Lake Erie tonight into Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop near the westernbasin late this afternoon before coverage increases across the lake tonight. There is a low chance of thunderstorms producing locally gusty winds and briefly higher wave heights. Winds will turn west to northwest behind the front Friday, then northeast this weekend as high pressure builds north of the lake. Wave should remain 2 feet or less through Friday, with 1 to 3 feet possible in the western basin this weekend. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sullivan AVIATION...04 MARINE...Saunders