FXUS61 KCLE 092000 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 400 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The forecast remains generally on track with a few strong thunderstorms possible in Northwest Ohio this evening. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible with thunderstorms on Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening through Friday as a cold front settles south into the area. A few thunderstorms could be strong to severe(level 1 of 5) and produce locally heavy rain. 2) Dry conditions return on Sunday with temperatures trending warmer into next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A broad area of low pressure is located near southern Lake Huron with a cold front extending to the southwest. Showers and thunderstorms have developed with weak to moderate instability of around 1000 J/kg of ML Cape ahead of the cold front across northern Indiana and southeast Michigan. Thunderstorms to the northwest have produced some wind gusts of 40-50 mph in an environment with slightly better shear in proximity to a shortwave over western Michigan. Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase across Northwest Ohio this evening and we will need to watch for a few stronger thunderstorms with DCAPE of 1100 J/kg. Activity may struggle as it moves east towards Cleveland and encounters dry air aloft early this evening. The airmass will continue to undergo moistening this evening and will see scattered showers and thunderstorms try to sneak across Lake Erie as the shortwave passes aloft. The threat for severe storms (Marginal Risk level 1 of 5) is still focused across Northwest Ohio which seems reasonable. By 00Z, PW values are forecast to increase to around 2 inches across northern portions of the forecast area. While a decrease in coverage is likely this evening as we lose heating, scattered showers with a few thunderstorms are expected overnight as the front sags south into the area with another shortwave moving through the quasi-zonal flow aloft after midnight. A general uptick in coverage is expected again as we destabilize on Friday along the front. Training of storms resulting in pockets of heavy rain are the main concern on Friday with storm motion of only 10-15 mph. HREF probs are showing some very low probabilities of three hour rainfall exceeding 3 inches in some of the southern counties on Friday afternoon with activity settling south of the area during the evening. Another robust shortwave will move through the Ohio Valley on Saturday and have continued with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures drop back into the lower 80s behind the front by Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 2... Strong high pressure builds over the Central Great Lakes on Sunday and settles south into the area early next week. This will bring several days of dry weather. A broad upper level ridge is forecast to develop over the Plains states next week. The eastward extent of the ridge will impact temperatures and chances of precipitation into the middle of next week. At this time confidence is higher in above normal temperatures in Northwest Ohio with lower confidence towards Northwest Pennsylvania due to the possibility of a trough passing to the north and/or possible lake breezes. The 12Z GFS was stronger with the New England trough than the consensus and continued with above normal temperatures for most of the area next week. && .AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/... Widespread VFR conditions are being observed across the area this afternoon as SCT diurnal cu have developed over most terminals. Upstream convection has begun to develop and is expected to move east through this evening into the overnight hours. Overall extent of convection is expected to remain scattered, making it difficult to pinpoint a potential arrival time of storms at terminals. KTOL would be the first impacted this afternoon with at least VCTS expected. If showers do impact terminals, conditions may briefing diminish to MVFR visibilities. On Friday, showers and storms are expected to stick around as a weak low pressure system moves into the area. Additional non-VFR conditions are possible with these additional showers, however overall confidence in timing remains low. Opted to handle all convection and showers with TEMPO or PROB30. Winds from the west-southwest this afternoon at 5-12 knots may occasionally gust up to 20 knots, especially across far western terminals. After sunset, winds will become light and variable before gradually transitioning to a more northerly flow on Friday afternoon. Outlook...Non-VFR possible with scattered thunderstorms through Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE... Calm marine conditions are expected to continue as high pressure lingers over the area. Southwest winds of 5-12 knots will gradually become northwesterly tonight into Friday morning as a weak low pressure system move south of the lakeshore. Waves will remain 2 feet or less. As the low moves south, there is a potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop which may produce locally gusty winds and higher waves. High pressure returns this weekend allowing winds to shift to northeasterly at 8-12 knots for Saturday and Sunday. Onshore flow across the western and central basin may result in waves building to 1 to 3 feet. This high will remain dominant into next week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...10 AVIATION...04 MARINE...04