FXUS61 KCLE 231920 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 320 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the upcoming forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms are expected across parts of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania this evening into early tonight. Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds and small hail is possible this evening. 2) Cooler weather with occasional lake effect rain showers continue across parts of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through early Tuesday. 3) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday night into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... An upper-level low remains situated over the Great Lakes region today with the occluded surface low right along the Ontario/Quebec border. A compact mid-level shortwave trough is working its way around western edge of the upper low and will approach the forecast from the north this evening. Paired with the left exit region of a jet streak over the western Great Lakes and we have solid forcing for ascent and pretty good confidence in timing and areal extent of precipitation this evening into early tonight. We start with scattered showers and storms areawide this afternoon as MLCAPE exceeds 250 J/kg underneath the jet streak forcing. The impending shortwave will focus a better period of thunderstorm development roughly along and northeast of I-80 in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania between 7 PM and 12 AM. This is where MLCAPE will be greatest (>500 J/kg) and exists the chance for organized convection that will have the potential for lightning, gusty winds (most likely in the 40-50 mph range), small hail, and heavy rain. While the mid-level speed max will be offset to the southwest, effective bulk shear of around 25-35 knots should be sufficient for an organized convection. Deep layer shear should be enough to produce strong winds but lack of DCAPE and waning low-level lapse rates is likely to make 40-50 mph gusts more common rather than 58+ mph (severe thunderstorm warning criteria). Small hail is likely to be pretty common in most thunderstorms this evening, aided by low freezing heights around 8-9kft and modest mid-level lapse rates. Large hail at or exceeding 1" is unlikely but possible with any rotating updrafts. Heavy rain is likely with thunderstorms with minor flooding possible is low-lying or flood-prone areas. Precipitation is unlikely to reach amounts for flash flooding. KEY MESSAGE 2.. Below normal temperatures continue through at least Tuesday with lake effect rain showers continuing tonight through Tuesday morning. Rain is likely to be more more persistent in Northwest Pennsylvania, compared to the "snowbelt" region of Northeast Ohio where rain showers will be more intermittent. KEY MESSAGE 3... Temperatures and humidity build back to near normal Wednesday and Thursday ahead of our next upper-level trough and low pressure system. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday night into Thursday with PoPs peaking in the 40-60% range. Can't completely rule out severe weather, but at this point most storms look to remain sub-severe. && .AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/... Low-end VFR (3.5kft cigs) conditions across the TAF sites this afternoon with pockets of non- VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms later this evening and overnight, mainly east of I-71. Starting to see some developing isolated to scattered showers across the area this afternoon, though thunder remains at a minimum so far. The highest confidence for more widespread showers and thunderstorms is later this evening, mainly at CLE/YNG/ERI. Brief elevated wind gusts up to 40 knots are possible at ERI with this activity. Winds remain elevated out ofthe west to northwest this afternoon, 10 to 15 knots with periodic gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Some isolated higher gusts up to 30 knots cannot be ruled out through the rest of this afternoon. Winds will diminish to less than 10 knots overnight, increasing again out of the west Monday afternoon, 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots possible. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in lake effect rain and/or low ceilings across the snowbelt late Monday into Tuesday. Non-VFR may return in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday. && .MARINE... Rough marine conditions will continue across much of Lake Erie through Monday with elevated west to northwest winds of 15 to 25 knots resulting in waves of 3 to 6 feet. Marine conditions will gradually improve Monday night into Tuesday as winds subside to 10 knots or less. Winds will shift towards the south to southwest on Wednesday, increasing into the 10 to 15 knot range by Thursday. A few stronger wind gusts in excess of 34 knots are likely across the central and eastern basin of Lake Erie through this evening, associated with showers and thunderstorms. There is also a risk for waterspouts into Tuesday morning. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday afternoon for OHZ009- 010. Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for OHZ011-012- 089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LEZ144-145. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for LEZ146>149. && $$ DISCUSSION...Saunders AVIATION...Kahn MARINE...Kahn