FXUS64 KCRP 162325 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 625 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Gale Warning remains in effect through early Saturday Afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed through late Saturday afternoon and evening. - A Wind Advisory remains in effect through tonight. - Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect this afternoon through Sunday morning. - High Rip Current Risk today through Saturday. - Elevated fire weather concerns behind the cold front this afternoon, mainly across the Brush Country. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The cold front has made its way into the South Texas region this morning, with strong winds coming out of the north from behind the front. Gust's today are expected to be up around 25-35 knots, with some areas possibly getting up to 40 knots closer offshore. A wind advisory remains in effect through this morning and into this afternoon. Those high winds won't be too much of a concern as they will begin to die down tomorrow afternoon, allowing for a beautiful weekend with mostly clear skies and cooler temperatures. Tomorrow morning will be significantly cooler than normal due to the front with highs in the low 70's across the South Texas region. Expect lows to dip into the mid to high 50's tonight and even Saturday night as well. Unfortunately, these cool conditions won't last for too long as we can see temperatures increasing starting early next week with temperatures reaching into the high 80's and low 90's over the CWA. Most of the rain chances with this frontal passage will remain offshore with a slight chance of showers early this afternoon but will ultimately clear up as relatively dry air filters in from the front. Humidity will be low in most areas across the South Texas region, especially in the evenings this weekend for the Brush Country. Coastal flooding will also be a concern from the strong northerly winds with swell periods ranging from 7 to 8 seconds. A coastal flood advisory will remain in effect through Sunday morning, with the biggest concern being during high tide. Rip current risk will && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. CIGs are around 10kft-15kft and should go scattered by Saturday afternoon. Strong gusty northerly winds will persist through the evening with gusts 25-30 knots. Winds will gradually decrease overnight into Saturday morning, with north winds around 10 knots expected by Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Strong near gale force (BF 7) with frequent gusts to Gale (BF 8) are expected to continue through Saturday afternoon. Winds will relax from nearshore to offshore through Saturday evening. Winds and seas will remain at advisory levels through Saturday night. A moderate northeast breeze will develop by Sunday. There is a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms across the nearshore waters and up to a 70% chance across the offshore waters through the morning hours. Rain chances will end from west to east through this afternoon and evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A strong cold front earlier this morning has brought strong northerly wind and drier conditions to South Texas through this afternoon. There may be a brief window this afternoon when RH values drop to around 25% across the Brush Country while winds are still strong, leading to elevated fire weather conditions. Due to a low ERC and moisture is normal to above normal, Red Flag Conditions are not anticipated. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for theBrush Country for this afternoon from 2 PM through 8 PM for elevated fire weather conditions. RH values begin to increase this evening decreasing the threat. Drier and cooler conditions are expected this weekend along with winds becoming light. Therefore, elevated fire weather concerns are not anticipated this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 57 73 55 77 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 53 74 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 55 73 53 77 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 55 73 53 78 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 59 76 59 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 53 72 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 55 73 54 77 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 61 74 63 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>231-239-240. Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ232>234-241>247- 342>344-346-347. High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ345-442- 443-447. Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ345-442-443-447. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ345-442-443- 447. GM...Gale Warning until 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ231-232-236-237. Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ250-255-270-275. && $$ DISCUSSION...JCP/84 AVIATION...TE/81