FXUS61 KCTP 080557
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
157 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Flood Watch issued for the southern Alleghenies & Laurel
  Highlands until 12AM Wednesday

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding possible in
south central PA this afternoon into tonight

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding 
possible in south central PA this afternoon into tonight 

Considerable breaks in the clouds has allowed for convective
development over southwest PA late this morning into the early
afternoon. High moisture content environment remains in place
with slow moving showers/storms capable of producing intense
rain rates. Cumulative rainfall over the past few days has lead
to increased soil sensitivity and significantly reduced FFG. 
Hires ensemble guidance (HREF/REFS) shows the southern 
Alleghenies and Laurels Highlands with the highest odds for 
localized 2-3" rainfall amounts. WPC has maintained a level 2/4 
excessive rain risk for this area and we issued a flood watch 
until 12AM Wed to highlight the short-term flooding threat.

Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue
through the end of the week, especially Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures will be seasonable with highs generally in the low
to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Plenty of low level moisture still in place across the region.
Areas east of a KBFD-KDUJ-KAOO line will likely drop down to 
IFR or LIFR in BR/FG for the back half of the night. Confidence
is high (>70%) for LIFR in FG at KUNV as it has for the past 
several mornings.

The remainder of sites will see a mix between VFR and MVFR
conditions overnight, with alternations between the two 
possible. Visibilities are expected to be mostly VFR at these
sites as well.  

Model guidance does indicate a slow improvement trend after 12Z
Wednesday, thus have continued the trend of increasing 
visibilities and ceilings during the mid and late day. Winds
will shift to a general southerly direction but will remain less
than 8kts.

Outlook...

Thu-Fri...Mainly dry early. Numerous to many SHRA/TSRA during 
the afternoon. Intermittent impacts likely.

Sat-Sun...Chance of showers and a few storms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl/Bauco
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Bauco
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Bauco
AVIATION...Lambrech/Tyburski