FXUS61 KCTP 081912
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
312 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Upgrade to level 2/4 excessive rain and flash flood risk for
  south central and southeast PA Thursday afternoon & evening

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Torrential downpours and strong to locally damaging 
thunderstorm wind gusts may impact portions of south central PA
Thursday afternoon and evening 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Torrential downpours and strong to locally 
damaging thunderstorm wind gusts may impact portions of south 
central PA Thursday afternoon and evening 

Most CAM guidance indicates a forward-propagating tstm cluster 
moving across southern PA/northern MD and the DelMarVa area
tomorrow afternoon before tracking offshore the Mid-Atlantic 
coast by late evening. SPC upgraded to a level 2/5 SLGT risk
which clips southern York and Lancaster Counties. The remainder
of the Lower Susquehanna Valley is in a level 1/5 MRGL risk 
with potential for strong to perhaps locally damaging wind gusts
dependent/contingent on location of strongest storms. The best 
CAPE and shear overlap is forecast farther to the south over 
the DelMarVa. HREF shows 2+ inch pwats available this area to 
drive very intense rain rates and increased flash flood risk. 
WPC will upgrade the excessive rainfall outlook to level 2/4 for
Thursday in their updated forecast later this afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Sub-VFR ceilings and visibility have improved to VFR at most
terminals as of 18Z. Outside of a brief shower/t-storm downpour
in the vicinity of KJST/KAOO/KUNV, expect VFR flying to 
continue into early tonight with waning shower activity. 

Outlook...

Thu-Fri...T-storm impacts likely during the afternoon. AM low 
clouds and fog possible. 

Sat...Reduced chance and more limited coverage of PM 
showers/t-storm.

Sun-Mon...Mainly VFR/no sig wx. 

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Steinbugl