FXUS63 KDDC 072311 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 611 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple opportunities for organized thunderstorm activity, particularly late evening into late night, Wednesday Night through early Saturday Morning. - Large area of 1/2" or more total rainfall during the above mentioned period likely across much of southwest and west central Kansas (50 to 60% chance). - Pattern chance to much drier period beginning this weekend, continuing through much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 146 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Thunderstorm coverage, severity, and timing will all be among the main forecast challenges over the next several days until we see a pattern shift this weekend. The positive-tilted ridge axis which was centered across Colorado into western Kansas will continue to break down as somewhat stronger mid tropospheric flow enters the Colorado Rockies and adjacent central High Plains. The increased mid level flow will act to enhance the low level leeside trough, thus enhancing convergence as well as upslope flow north of wherever a surface low develops. All of these things combined will support mesoscale convective system (MCS) activity from eastern Colorado into western Kansas beginning Wednesday evening. This morning's 12Z run of the HREF model appears to be lining up well with the global model ensemble systems (100-member Grand Ensemble) and its mean QPF field, lending higher confidence in Wednesday Night's MCS tracking more over the northwestern third of Kansas. As such, higher POPs in the NBM will be confined to the northwestern third of the DDC CWA. It still appears as though Wednesday Night/early Thursday Morning's MCS will push an outflow boundary across southwest Kansas, which would likely stall out, weaken, and eventually become replaced by broad east-southeasterly winds back into far southwest/west central Kansas into eastern Colorado -- setting the stage for a better MCS scenario for southwestern Kansas Thursday Night. POPs continue to go up on the NBM given increasing run-to-run consistency among more of the global model ensemble members. A formidable MCS should track east- southeastward through the night across much of southwest Kansas with increasing signals of 1/2" or more 24-hour rainfall amounts, highest 35-45% generally north of a Syracuse to Dodge City to La Crosse line. There will likely be one more opportunity for a MCS to impact portions of southwest Kansas Friday Night/early Saturday morning as NBM does maintain some 20-30% probabilities of 1/2" more rainfall in the 24-hr period 7am Friday to 7am Saturday (CDT), but much of this will depend on air mass recovery from Thursday Night's event. After Friday Night, a large upper level high will develop and expand across much of the central CONUS, with signals of the center of this high being north of Southwest Kansas. This synoptic setup would favor a heat wave focused more on areas north and northwest of our southwest Kansas region, thus probabilities of 100+ for highs have actually been decreasing in the medium range portion of the forecast going into next week as daily highs in the lower to mid 90s appear more likely now vs. upper 90s to lower 100s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 610 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period. Dying storms will move out of Colorado late this evening and provide a mid and high level cloud deck over western Kansas through the morning hours on Wednesday. Winds should stay breezy sustained around 12 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts at times. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Umscheid AVIATION...Tatro