FXUS63 KDDC 081923
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
223 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) severe storms both Tonight and
  Thursday Night for primarily a damaging straight line wind
  risk.

- Large thunderstorm system late Thursday evening/night may lead
  to isolated to widely scattered excessive rainfall potential
  with latest NBM 95th percentile showing some 3"+ amounts
  (1-in-20 chance at any location)

- Hot and dry pattern late weekend into next week, however
  chance of significant heat wave impacts across southwest
  Kansas are low at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Prolonged thunderstorm chances tonight through early Saturday 
morning will be the main forecast challenge. The first decent chance 
will be later on this evening as a mesoscale convective system (MCS) 
develops across eastern Colorado within increasing moist upslope low 
level winds. Latest convection-allowing models and ensemble systems 
(particularly the experimental GSL version of the REFS) have a 
pretty strong signal of organized strong to severe thunderstorms 
rolling across mainly far west central and northwest Kansas with 
some weakening signal after 05Z (Midnight CDT) as storms move east 
of the U283 corridor. This weakening signal it mainly due to weaker 
deep layer shear and low level moist inflow later at night. 
Regardless, at least a small MCS should survive east of U283, 
generally along the I-70 corridor. Latest NBM 12-hr QPF probs are 
also not all that high with only a 20-25% chance of 1/4" or more QPF 
late tonight along the K96 to I-70 corridor.

The greater signal for numerous strong/severe thunderstorms 
continues to be Thursday Night as better kinematic and thermodynamic 
fields will support a longer-lived, more organized strong to severe 
MCS. QPF signals are also much higher of a larger area of west 
central and southwest Kansas with 24-hr (1 PM Thursday to 1 
PM Friday CDT) chances of 1/4" in the 50 to 60% range for roughly 
two-thirds of the DDC NWS forecast area, generally northwest of a 
Liberal to Pratt line. Same time frame 1"+ probs are showing 25-35% 
probability scattered about southwest Kansas from the 13Z NBM, and 
it would not be surprising to see a few spots see two inches of rain 
just from Thursday Night's event alone with 90th percentile QPF well 
above two inches in some locations. A third and final round of 
thunderstorms Friday Night will be possible as well, most likely 
focused farther south and probably south of our DDC forecast area 
entirely -- especially if Thursday Night/Friday morning's forecast 
big MCS event pushes the effective boundary pretty far to the south. 

Heading into the medium range next week, the large scale pattern 
will evolve towards a highly anomalous upper level high centered 
across the central CONUS. Latest Grand Ensemble of the Big 3 global 
models ECMWF ENS, NCEP GEFS, and Canadian GEPS show a mean 500mb 
high position forming over the Colorado/Wyoming Rockies moving 
across the Northern Great Plains through early to mid next week with 
50-60% probability of 600 decameter high center. Such an anomalous 
high that far north would actually put southwest Kansas in a 
stronger than normal deep easterly flow regime, thus keeping the 
excessive heat risk farther north through this period. We will 
likely see daily highs in the lower to mid 90s much of next week 
with perhaps a slow ramp up toward upper 90s/near 100 by the end of 
our 7-day forecast period.  This pattern would not support much 
rainfall given the large scale subsidence in vicinity of the upper 
high.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Southerly winds will become fairly light later this afternoon asa broad, but weak low pressure expands slowly across southwest
Kansas. With the exception of LBL, winds should remain fairly
light through this evening ahead of thunderstorms later tonight.
Thunderstorms will remain in the TAFs for all airports DDC, GCK,
LBL, and HYS (PROB30 group) for a 4-hour period. Given the hot
air mass in place, the probability for VFR flight category much
of this period is very high, except for a brief time in
thunderstorms late tonight. After any storms late tonight, winds
may briefly be gusty out of the northeast but eventually become
light and variable as a weak synoptic pressure gradient remains
in place across much of Kansas.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid