FXUS63 KDDC 092138 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 438 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - Weakening upper level ridge will support afternoon highs today ranging from the low 90s north to the upper 90s/near 100 south. - Severe thunderstorms are possible both Thursday and Friday evening, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat especially on Thursday. - Long dry and quiet stretch after Friday expected with seasonably hot highs in the 90s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 438 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Updated to issue a heat advisory for Barber county, where heat index at P28 has been 110-112. Also added pops for the southeast counties, where storms have quickly developed along a confluence zones amid very strong instability. CAM consensus is coming into agreement that a strong MCS will favor the northern zones late this evening, and then track toward the east/northeast zones later tonight. First severe thunderstorm watch is being issued now for Hamilton county. Coordination with SPC suggests another severe thunderstorm watch is likely for much of SW KS later this evening into early Friday morning. Primary risk continues to be strong to damaging winds of 50-70 mph tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The synoptic pattern is a primarily zonal pattern aloft with a weak high pressure over the southern corners of the CONUS. Nearer to the surface, weak surface lows are present immediately along the sides of a subtle surface high pressure system in Colorado. Highs today will continue the relatively consistent streak of mostly 90 degree highs similar to the last few days as well as deeper into the forecast period. The forecast focus then shifts to the storm potential tonight. Since the start of the week, models and ensembles have depicted a notable signal for an MCS tonight. CAMs have storms initiating in Colorado around 2-3 PM and congealing into a line around 7 PM just before crossing into Kansas. The elevated nature will nearly eliminate the tornado threat tonight. Shear via modeled soundings are only around 30 KTs with CAPE around 1500 J/kg. More notably, DCAPE is at 2000 J/kg. If these storms come to fruition as forecast, wind gusts of 60-70 mph are expected. Most CAMs have a section of the line becoming concentrated bowing segment at some points in the overnight. The HRRR has it around 11 PM around highway 183, the NAMNST around 11 PM near highway 83, and the WRF-ARW around 9 PM near highway 83. All this to say there is a wide spread of potential outcomes particularly relating to an enhanced bowing segment with the storms. If this materializes, wind gusts with the enhanced segment could exceed 70 mph wind gusts with damaging winds. Severe hail of around an inch is possible, but remains an auxiliary threat to the wind concerns. The line of storms are forecast to reach nearly the entire CWA, although some area very easily could remain dry with breaks in the line or not covering the entire area. The lowest chance for storms are near the Oklahoma border, but storm chances remain above 20%. Storms are forecast to clear out by around 3 AM. Some CAMs have weaker cells developing ahead of the line, but the chances seems scattered and very uncertain relative to the bulk of the storms in the line. These would likely also pose a hail threat if their strength can be maximized. Localized flooding is possible, but the storms are forecast to move fast enough to mitigate widespread flooding. Friday will again be in the upper 80s/90s. Another round of storms are expected Friday night although more limited in coverage and intensity. The NAMNST has the forecast sounding depicting a similar amount of CAPE and shear. There is a lot more CIN expected to be present and provides a failure point for potential storms. These storms are forecast to occur primarily around 10 PM-2 AM with the best chances in far SW Kansas. Even if storms on Thursday overperform, there is enough time on Friday to recover assuming the cap can be broken. Again with these storms the primary threat is strong winds. Continued monitoring for subsidence and the cap will be needed. The rest of the forecast period is forecast to be dry and is backed up by models. The only notable weather is the continued seasonal heat with highs in the 90s. Winds will most be light out of the south/southeast. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 410 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR will prevail through this TAF period, with varying amounts of mid/high clouds. An isolated thunderstorm is possible near DDC over the next 1-2 hours. A complex of thunderstorms is expected to spread over SW KS tonight, with primary impacts from west to east during the 03-09z Fri time frame. Included convective TEMPO groups at GCK-DDC-HYS for this line of storms tonight, with the primary risk outflow wind gusts to near 50 kts. Model consensus keeps tonight's complex north of LBL, as such kept the LBL TAF dry this update. Winds will remain light through Friday, outside the influence of thunderstorm outflows. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ090. && $$ UPDATE...Turner DISCUSSION...KBJ AVIATION...Turner