FXUS63 KDDC 152248 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 548 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A freeze watch is in effect for Friday night into Saturday morning. - Cool and windy weather is expected through Friday, with below freezing readings and lighter winds by Saturday morning. - A warming trend is forecast Sunday and into next week, with highs near 80 by Tuesday or Wednesday. - The next chance of rain is late next week or next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 117 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Surface high pressure will build across the high plains through Saturday morning, with brisk north winds at 15-30 mph. There may be a lull in the winds this evening with the loss of daytime mixing. Highs in the 50s look on track for Friday. As surface high pressure settles across the high plains Friday night, clear skies and light winds will allow for strong radiational cooling, with temperatures falling into the 20s in far western Kansas and lower 30s in south central Kansas. Thus, a freeze watch was issued for all of central and southwest Kansas with the exception of Barber County. Surface high pressure is forecast to slowly move off to the east this weekend, with a warming trend expected; and this warmup will persist next week. A weak upper level trough is predicted to approach the high plains by early Monday; but given the lack of low to mid level moisture, rain is not expected. Highs are forecast to reach near or above 80 by the Tuesday to Thursday time frame. There will be a very slow return of moisture next week and into next weekend as a strong upper level trough amplifies over the western USA, resulting in lee troughing and south winds. However, the rich moisture return will not occur until the upper level trough gets closer. Rain chances increase by next Friday and Saturday as the trough approaches the high plains. But even then there is uncertainty in how much rich moisture will make it into western Kansas. Given that the southern and central plains will be in the warm sector, with no source for cold air initially, it remains to be seen if enough potential instability will be present for thunderstorms. If the system slows down and colder air does progress southward ahead of it, then rain chances would be higher; but this is a low probability scenario. Bottom line is that the conservative route on rain chances seems appropriate given the uncertainty. And we are getting to that dry time of year when a special upper level pattern is required for widespread rain on the high plains. This is due to the stronger westerly momentum across the Rockies that tends to shunt moisture to the east of here. Probability wise, the grand ensemble indicates only 10-25% chances for .5" or greater of rain by next Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 545 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Flight category was gradually improving this afternoon following our latest storm system, and VFR flight category will be resuming this evening as colder, drier air mass continues its march across the western Great Plains, including southwest Kansas. There is no major wind shift in direction or speed through this TAF period as a fairly robust MSLP gradient remains in place with the cold, high surface pressure area still off to our north, at least through early afternoon Friday. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>089. && $$ DISCUSSION...Finch/Bennett AVIATION...Umscheid